Flávio Bolsonaro win (Brazil 2026)

Polymarket prices Flávio at 41.6% ($67.8M deep volume). EHIQ at 33% — 8.6pp fade. TIQ corpus seed surfaced key linguistic signals: (1) Surface-confident, substance-near-zero register; (2) Hubris rising in <30 days — flipped to advocating 8-year mandate (i.e., two consecutive terms before being elected the first time) — classic inevitability/hubris register; (3) Coalition discipline fraying: "Bolsonaro vai subir a rampa comigo" (Bolsonaro will walk up the ramp with me) is presumptive-future cluster — assumes outcomes without delivery. Right consolidation is partial tailwind: Tarcísio endorsed Flávio (not running himself), reducing intra-right vote split risk. But linguistic tells offset the consolidation — Polymarket overprices the dynasty handover certainty given Flávio's campaign immaturity vs father Jair's charisma. Caveat: TIQ corpus seed only.