Flávio Bolsonaro win (Brazil 2026)

REFRESHED Jun 20 2026: Polymarket prices Flávio WIN at 25% (market_universe snapshot), down from the stale 41.6% at open. EHIQ 22% — slight fade. The May 14 Banco Master scandal (Intercept audio: R$134M Vorcaro biopic request) damaged him with his own base and flipped a March tie into a Lula lead (Quaest -10 first round, AtlasIntel -7.1 runoff). He still likely ADVANCES (~69% qualify) but loses the runoff; register went defensive (deny-then-reframe self-repair under load). DOWNSIDE: substitution risk — if the scandal forces him out before the ~Aug registration deadline and Tarcísio is "requested", this resolves NO regardless. First round Oct 4, runoff Oct 25. PRIOR (May 10): TIQ corpus seed surfaced key linguistic signals: (1) Surface-confident, substance-near-zero register; (2) Hubris rising in <30 days — flipped to advocating 8-year mandate (i.e., two consecutive terms before being elected the first time) — classic inevitability/hubris register; (3) Coalition discipline fraying: "Bolsonaro vai subir a rampa comigo" (Bolsonaro will walk up the ramp with me) is presumptive-future cluster — assumes outcomes without delivery. Right consolidation is partial tailwind: Tarcísio endorsed Flávio (not running himself), reducing intra-right vote split risk. But linguistic tells offset the consolidation — Polymarket overprices the dynasty handover certainty given Flávio's campaign immaturity vs father Jair's charisma. Caveat: TIQ corpus seed only.