EventHorizon IQ
90-Day Commodity Outlook
Structural risk sensors for gold and oil. Not price targets — directional probabilities backed by historical data. Updated daily.
Key Finding
Both sensors work as contrarian indicators at extremes. When gold structural risk reads LOW, gold has returned +11.0% over 90 days with an 87.5% positive rate (n=104). When oil reads LOW, oil returned +26.0% at 90 days (n=54). The signal is strongest at the extremes — NORMAL is a base rate, not a trade.
Gold
GLD | gold-structural-risk
Current 90-Day Outlook
When gold structural risk reads NORMAL, GLD has returned +7.75% on average over 90 days with a 78.3% positive rate across 1008 observations.
Historical Returns by State (1354 observations)
| State | n | 30d | 60d | 90d | 90d Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | 104 | +4.3% | +7.7% | +11.0% | 87.5% |
| NORMAL | 1008 | +2.0% | +4.8% | +7.8% | 78.3% |
| RISING | 146 | +0.7% | -0.1% | -1.3% | 51.4% |
| ELEVATED | 60 | -0.0% | -0.7% | -0.5% | 56.7% |
| SEVERE | 36 | -0.3% | +0.5% | -0.1% | 58.3% |
Last updated: Apr 3, 2026
Oil
USO | oil-structural-risk
Current 90-Day Outlook
When oil structural risk reads NORMAL, USO has returned +2.23% on average over 90 days with a 40.8% positive rate across 733 observations.
Historical Returns by State (1010 observations)
| State | n | 30d | 60d | 90d | 90d Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | 54 | +8.1% | +21.1% | +26.0% | 66.7% |
| NORMAL | 733 | +1.1% | +0.7% | +2.2% | 40.8% |
| RISING | 188 | +0.2% | +3.2% | +3.8% | 61.2% |
| ELEVATED | 33 | -1.3% | +3.2% | +6.6% | 84.8% |
| SEVERE | 2 | -3.5% | -2.2% | +5.8% | 100% |
Last updated: Apr 3, 2026
How to Read This
What this is
- • Structural risk scores based on macro inputs (rates, currencies, credit spreads, alternative data)
- • Backtested against 6 years of realized commodity prices
- • Directional probabilities: “when the sensor reads X, the commodity returned Y% Z% of the time”
- • Updated daily from live market data
What this is NOT
- • Not a price target (“gold will be $2,450”)
- • Not a trading signal (use your own risk management)
- • Not a prediction (historical base rates, not forecasts)
- • Not financial advice
Methodology
Each sensor computes rolling 63-day z-scores across 3–5 macro features, orients them for commodity-bullish direction, and produces a weighted composite score. States are assigned based on z-score thresholds. Forward returns are measured at 30, 60, and 90 days against realized GLD and USO prices.
The gold sensor uses CAD/USD, high-yield spreads (HYG), USD/JPY, stablecoin market cap, and DeFi TVL. The oil sensor uses DXY, initial jobless claims, the 10y-2y yield curve, and private aviation traffic data.
Backtest period: 6 years. Gold: 1354 observations. Oil: 1010 observations. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Historical returns are backtested and may not reflect future results. All data sourced from public market feeds. Sensors update daily.