← All calls
ElectionActive★ featured
Paloma Valencia win (Colombia 2026)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
EHIQ
10%
(7-14%)
Edge
-4.3pp
EHIQ below market
Upstream of markets
EHIQ called this at 10% on May 10, 2026 when Polymarket was at 20%.
Market has since moved down to 14% · -5.3pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 9 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Polymarket prices Valencia at ~16-24% (Vol $28M). EHIQ at 10% — fade thesis intact, minor adjustment from prior 9%. Centro Democrático brand has weakened post-Uribe-era; party polling declining for several cycles. Valencia is a credible Senator but lacks executive resume the presidential lane requires, and Espriella eats much of her right-wing base. Caveat: structural-priors, no Colombian TIQ corpus.
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
June 21, 2026