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ElectionWithdrawn★ featured
Paloma Valencia win (Colombia 2026)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
10%
(7-14%)
Edge
—
—
The call vs the market, dated
Opened May 10, 2026. The at-open probability stamps on this call have not passed provenance verification and are excluded from all statistics; the resolved outcome is unaffected.
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Polymarket prices Valencia at ~16-24% (Vol $28M). EHIQ at 10% — fade thesis intact, minor adjustment from prior 9%. Centro Democrático brand has weakened post-Uribe-era; party polling declining for several cycles. Valencia is a credible Senator but lacks executive resume the presidential lane requires, and Espriella eats much of her right-wing base. Caveat: structural-priors, no Colombian TIQ corpus.
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
June 21, 2026
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