Abelardo de la Espriella win (Colombia 2026)

Polymarket prices Espriella at ~42% (Vol $28M). EHIQ at 28% — 12pp fade (revised from prior 22% which was too aggressive vs May data — magnitude has held into May per agent corpus). Right-wing vote splits between him, Valencia, and likely Vicky Dávila/Hernández if either declares. To win, he needs to (a) consolidate the right base, (b) make runoff (Colombian threshold 50% round 1 = unlikely), then (c) win runoff. Stacking those conditional probabilities with calibrated TIQ-style read of his TV/social-media register, ~28% is calibrated. Caveat: structural-priors call, no Colombian TIQ corpus.