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ElectionWithdrawn★ featured
Abelardo de la Espriella win (Colombia 2026)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
28%
(23-33%)
Edge
—
—
The call vs the market, dated
EHIQ called this at 28% on May 10, 2026 when Polymarket was at 42%.
Market has since moved up to 45% · +2.5pp toward EHIQ opposite
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Polymarket prices Espriella at ~42% (Vol $28M). EHIQ at 28% — 12pp fade (revised from prior 22% which was too aggressive vs May data — magnitude has held into May per agent corpus). Right-wing vote splits between him, Valencia, and likely Vicky Dávila/Hernández if either declares. To win, he needs to (a) consolidate the right base, (b) make runoff (Colombian threshold 50% round 1 = unlikely), then (c) win runoff. Stacking those conditional probabilities with calibrated TIQ-style read of his TV/social-media register, ~28% is calibrated. Caveat: structural-priors call, no Colombian TIQ corpus.
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
June 21, 2026
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