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ElectionWithdrawn★ featured
Iván Cepeda Castro win (Colombia 2026)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
premise not yet verified
EHIQ
20%
(15-25%)
Edge
—
—
The call vs the market, dated
Opened May 10, 2026. The at-open probability stamps on this call have not passed provenance verification and are excluded from all statistics; the resolved outcome is unaffected.
EHIQ vs market over time · 10 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Polymarket prices Cepeda at ~42% (Vol $28M). EHIQ at 20% — 22pp fade (HIGHEST-confidence fade in Colombia field). Why: first-round lead doesn't translate to runoff math. Pacto Histórico is fragmenting post-Petro and Cepeda is one of contenders, not the lock. Gustavo Bolívar, Susana Muhamad, Daniel Quintero are credible PH alternatives. Petro's machine has track record of pivoting to whoever polls best late. Cepeda's first-round share doesn't carry through to runoff because the consolidation game (non-PH center+right alignment against him) is the reverse-engineered runoff loss path. The 42% reads as 'consensus PH continuation' pricing, not Cepeda-specific. Caveat: structural-priors, no Colombian TIQ corpus.
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
June 21, 2026
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