Iván Cepeda Castro win (Colombia 2026)

Polymarket prices Cepeda at ~42% (Vol $28M). EHIQ at 20% — 22pp fade (HIGHEST-confidence fade in Colombia field). Why: first-round lead doesn't translate to runoff math. Pacto Histórico is fragmenting post-Petro and Cepeda is one of contenders, not the lock. Gustavo Bolívar, Susana Muhamad, Daniel Quintero are credible PH alternatives. Petro's machine has track record of pivoting to whoever polls best late. Cepeda's first-round share doesn't carry through to runoff because the consolidation game (non-PH center+right alignment against him) is the reverse-engineered runoff loss path. The 42% reads as 'consensus PH continuation' pricing, not Cepeda-specific. Caveat: structural-priors, no Colombian TIQ corpus.