Lula da Silva re-election (Brazil 2026)

Polymarket prices Lula at 40.5% (Vol $67.8M, real consensus). EHIQ at 38% — modest 2.5pp fade (revised from prior 33% after candidate-set correction: Haddad left Fazenda March 2026 to run for São Paulo Governor, so PT has NO presidential backup. The 'PT pivots to Haddad if Lula declines' scenario is invalid; P(Lula runs) goes UP because PT needs him on the ballot). Remaining fade comes from age (81 by election day) and approval headwinds (32-37% range, fiscal/inflation pressure). TIQ caveat: PT-BR corpus build is Phase 2 work (~4-5 weeks calendar; do NOT pipe DeepL into English TIQ pipeline — same false-confidence pathology as v24 leak).