Flávio Bolsonaro win (Brazil 2026)

Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 41.6% (Vol $67.8M, real consensus). EHIQ at 33% — 8.6pp fade (revised from prior 36% after TIQ read on Flávio's verbal corpus). 'Surface-confident, substance-near-zero' register — high confidence, low policy specificity. Hubris rising in <30 days: flipped to advocating an 8-year mandate (advocating two terms before being elected once) — classic inevitability/hubris register. Presumptive-future cluster ('Bolsonaro vai subir a rampa comigo') assumes outcomes without delivery. Tarcísio endorsement + right consolidation (Tarcísio NOT running himself) is positive structural signal but offset by linguistic tells of campaign immaturity. Caveat: TIQ corpus is provisional, 4-5 weeks of build work needed for live-call-ready depth.