The SVB Signal: How 3 Sensors Detected a Bank Crisis 60 Days Early
On January 8, 2023, EventHorizonIQ sensors shifted. Two months later, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed.
The 3-Signal Pattern
Employment stress rising. Non-farm payroll momentum decelerating, signaling cracks beneath headline jobs numbers.
Credit conditions deteriorating. Banks pulling back on lending standards, restricting capital flow to the real economy.
Risk premia expanding. High-yield credit spreads widening as bond markets price in rising default probability.
The Cascade
3 sensors shift simultaneously
Silicon Valley Bank fails
Signature Bank fails
First Republic fails
Metropolitan Commercial Bank fails
The Numbers
Lookback Windows
We tested sensor states at 9 different lookback windows before each failure. The 3-signal pattern was present at every window from 1 to 60 days.
This Is Not Hindsight
Every sensor reading is logged to an immutable ledger with a timestamp. We cannot edit what we recorded. The January 8 shift was logged on January 8 — not reconstructed after the fact.
All sensor states are written to Neon Postgres with server-generated timestamps. No manual override. No retroactive edits. No exceptions.
Us vs. Them
See the full signal history and live performance.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Statistical validation does not guarantee future signal accuracy. EHIQ is an intelligence layer providing diagnostic observations, not investment advice. Permutation tests, bootstrap confidence intervals, and walk-forward validation are standard statistical techniques; they reduce but do not eliminate the risk of false discovery.