{ "tape_version": "v0", "schema_version": "TAPE_schema_v0_2026-09-10", "publisher": "EHIQ Inc.", "built_at": "2026-09-10", "source": "Neon prediction_calls, READ-ONLY pull via psycopg2 (readonly session, no writes, no session SET)", "row_count_sql": 148, "row_count_serialized": 148, "counts_agree": true, "freeze_semantics": "This version is immutable once published. Corrections ship as a new tape version with a changelog; rows are never silently edited.", "consumer_rule": "Every statistic about this tape is computed by the consumer from these rows. The publisher asserts no aggregate in this file.", "known_defects": [ "updated_at is unreliable (not maintained on every mutation); carried raw, labeled UNRELIABLE", "criterion_stamped_at null on 134/148 rows (legacy registrations pre-date the field requirement)", "ehiq_prob_range_low/high null on 52/148 rows (legacy; required for all registrations since 2026-08-13)", "3 retrospective rows (opened_at < 2026) flagged retrospective:true; exclude from live-registered statistics", "market_source contains legacy values {unrecorded, none, no_free_source} alongside the canonical {polymarket, kalshi, sell_side_consensus, instrument_implied, manual, gray_market_indications, no_market}" ], "rows": [ { "id": 78, "slug": "drake-iceman-y1-units-2027", "name": "Drake 'Iceman' Year-1 cumulative units", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Drake's 'Iceman' finish its first 52 weeks with cumulative US equivalent album units between 1.5M and 1.9M (point estimate 1.7M)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.6, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.7, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.6, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "none", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-06-02T14:30:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2027-05-15T12:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-02T14:54:29.934569+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-02T14:54:29.934569+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2027-05-15" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2027-05-15T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 112, "slug": "mitk-provenance-rerate-2026", "name": "Mitek (MITK) outperforms the Russell 2000 on the AI-provenance re-rate", "category": "equity", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Does MITK total-return-outperform the Russell 2000 (IWM) from the 2026-07-10 close ($19.33 vs IWM $295.99) through Dec 31 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.52, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.52, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "none", "market_id": "MITK", "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-07-13T14:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T21:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-13T11:31:03.008850+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-13T11:31:03.008850+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "condition": "MITK total-return outperforms IWM from 2026-07-10", "resolves_at": "2026-12-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 46, "slug": "seoul-mayoral-chong-2026", "name": "Chong Won-oh win (Seoul Mayoral 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Chong Won-oh (DPK) win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.85, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.8, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.9, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.85, "market_prob": 0.9, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "2026-seoul-mayoral-election-winner", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/2026-seoul-mayoral-election-winner", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.925, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-03T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:29.079363+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T19:52:27.242159+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:29.079363+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "Chong Won-o LOST to incumbent Oh (margin 1.15pt) despite exit polls projecting a Chong win. Chong win = NO. EHIQ 85% \u2192 MISS.", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": false, "edge_pp": -5.0, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 29, "slug": "house-control-2026", "name": "US House control 2026", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Democrats win the US House in 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.6, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.7, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65, "market_prob": 0.865, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-the-democratic-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.775, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-04-19T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": "2026-09-01T18:50:20.176136+00:00", "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-11-04T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T16:26:48.504414+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:10.936000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -21.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "Polymarket settlement of `will-the-democratic-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections`. That market resolves to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm, meaning a majority of the chamber's voting seats. Verified against the venue's published description 2026-09-01.", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-11-04" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-11-04T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 35, "slug": "prez-2028-aoc", "name": "2028 presidency \u2014 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.04, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.02, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.06, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.04, "market_prob": 0.1325, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.0545, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T17:18:49.573635+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:10.994000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -9.25, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-11-07" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 114, "slug": "repl-rp1-adcom-2026", "name": "FDA advisory committee votes AGAINST Replimune RP1 (melanoma)", "category": "biotech", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the FDA Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) vote UNfavorably (majority against clinical benefit) on RP1 (vusolimogene oderparepvec) + nivolumab for advanced melanoma? (~July 28 2026)", "ehiq_prob": 0.7, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.7, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-07-18T18:28:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-07-28T23:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-08-13T10:44:57.233951+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-18T18:32:46.992791+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-13T10:44:57.233951+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "miss", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": false, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "T2/Claude (Eric directive 2026-08-13, event-rule resolution of overdue calls)", "resolution_source": "https://ir.replimune.com/news-releases/news-release-details/replimune-announces-favorable-outcome-fdas-cellular-tissue-and ; https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/replimunes-twice-rejected-melanoma-drug-prevails-fda-adcomm", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-07-28" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 261, "slug": "cero-note-repaid-in-full-2026-10-15", "name": "CERO repays the consolidated note in full by the October 15 maturity", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": "srxh_cero_note", "outcome_question": "Does CERo Therapeutics Holdings repay the Consolidated Senior Secured Promissory Note (SRX Global, issued 2026-08-27) in full, principal and accrued interest, on or before its 2026-10-15 maturity, with no extension exercised?", "ehiq_prob": 0.15, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.08, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.25, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.15, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": "2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00", "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-09-03T10:16:31.620688+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-03T10:16:31.620688+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "Resolves NO early if SRX accelerates or begins collateral enforcement before maturity (its own material 8-K).", "graded_on": "SRXH or CERO 8-K/10-Q disclosure of the note's status at or after the 2026-10-15 maturity: repaid in full vs extended or otherwise outstanding.", "resolves_at": "2026-10-15" } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": 42, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 60, "slug": "brazil-presidential-lula-2026", "name": "Lula da Silva re-election (Brazil 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.58, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.64, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.38, "market_prob": 0.515, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.405, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": "2026-09-01T18:50:20.176136+00:00", "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-10-25T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-19T21:33:04.497675+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:11.061000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 6.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "Polymarket settlement of `will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election`. That market resolves to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election and, in its own words, INCLUDES any potential second round. First round 2026-10-04; runoff, if one is held, 2026-10-25. If the result is not known by 2027-06-30 the venue resolves the market to Other. Verified against the venue's published description 2026-09-01.", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-10-25" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-10-25T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 39, "slug": "prez-2028-ossoff", "name": "2028 presidency \u2014 Jon Ossoff", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.04, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.02, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.06, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.04, "market_prob": 0.1185, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-jon-ossoff-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.038, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T17:18:49.863400+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:11.117000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -7.85, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-11-07" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 144, "slug": "fda-capr-pdufa-2026-08-22", "name": "FDA decision (PDUFA) \u2014 CAPR deramiocel", "category": "biotech", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the FDA approve deramiocel (CAPR) on/around 2026-08-22? DMD (AdComm Jul 29)", "ehiq_prob": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-08-13T12:00:01.285542+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-08-22T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-13T12:00:01.285542+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-22T11:22:13.044271+00:00", "status": "withdrawn", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "FDA's own action on the deramiocel BLA: the approval letter or the Drugs@FDA entry recording the action, or Capricor's 8-K disclosing the agency's decision. A press report of an expected decision is not sufficient; a CRL is a NO.", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": "no_data", "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 72, "slug": "spcx-6mo-outperform-qqq-10pp-2026", "name": "SpaceX (SPCX) \u2014 6-month total return outperforms QQQ by >10pp", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will SPCX 6-month total return (from IPO close) outperform QQQ total return by more than 10 percentage points?", "ehiq_prob": 0.4, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.35, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.45, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.4, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "manual", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-05-20T20:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-14T21:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-21T01:29:29.998888+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:10.324000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-12-14" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-14T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 157, "slug": "will-the-merger-described-in-liveramp-holdings-inc-ramp-s-de-20261004", "name": "Will the merger described in LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?", "category": "catalyst", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the merger described in LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?", "ehiq_prob": 0.92, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.92, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-08-18T15:22:14.030115+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-18T15:22:14.030115+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-18T20:26:34.954368+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/733269/000110465926080505/0001104659-26-080505-index.htm", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "event": "Will the merger described in LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?", "source": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/733269/000110465926080505/0001104659-26-080505-index.htm", "resolves_at": "2026-10-04", "kill_trigger": "A termination 8-K, a withdrawn proxy, or a second-request/injunction that pushes the outside date past the resolution date." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": "call", "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 111, "slug": "idn-provenance-rerate-2026", "name": "Intellicheck (IDN) outperforms the Russell 2000 on the AI-provenance re-rate", "category": "equity", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Does IDN total-return-outperform the Russell 2000 (IWM) from the 2026-07-10 close ($4.13 vs IWM $295.99) through Dec 31 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.62, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.62, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "none", "market_id": "IDN", "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-07-13T14:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T21:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-13T11:31:03.008850+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-13T11:31:03.008850+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "condition": "IDN total-return outperforms IWM from 2026-07-10", "resolves_at": "2026-12-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 3, "slug": "la-mayoral-raman-2026", "name": "LA mayoral \u2014 Nithya Raman first-round winner", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Nithya Raman finish first in the June 2 2026 LA mayoral primary (first-round winner)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.17, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.14, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.21, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.17, "market_prob": 0.34, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "los-angeles-mayoral-election-117-raman", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/los-angeles-mayoral-election-117", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.34, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T15:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-02T23:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:28.655092+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:49.582982+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:28.655092+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "Raman finished 2nd (~21%, overtook Pratt during the count). Not first. First-round winner = NO. EHIQ 17% \u2192 HIT.", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": true, "edge_pp": -17.0, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 19, "slug": "senate-mi-peters-2026", "name": "MI Senate \u2014 Peters retention", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Gary Peters (D) retain his Michigan Senate seat in 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.6, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.7, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-04-19T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-11-04T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T16:00:52.563601+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:19.964000+00:00", "status": "withdrawn", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 47, "slug": "seoul-mayoral-oh-2026", "name": "Oh Se-hoon retention (Seoul Mayoral 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Oh Se-hoon (PPP) retain Seoul mayor in 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.15, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.1, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.2, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.15, "market_prob": 0.1, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "2026-seoul-mayoral-election-winner", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/2026-seoul-mayoral-election-winner", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.075, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-03T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:28.938823+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T19:52:27.242159+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:28.938823+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "Oh Se-hoon RETAINED the Seoul mayoralty (5th term, 49.22%), a come-from-behind win over Chong. Retention = YES. EHIQ 15% \u2192 MISS (lowballed the incumbent).", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": false, "edge_pp": 5.0, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 95, "slug": "boc-rate-decision-2026-06-04", "name": "BoC 2026-06-04 \u2014 Hold at 2.25%", "category": "macro", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the Bank of Canada hold the overnight rate at the 2026-06-04 meeting (currently 2.25%)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.633, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.583, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.683, "ehiq_prob_at_open": null, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_free_source", "market_id": null, "market_url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-05-22T20:44:10.574000+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-04T13:45:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:29.224265+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-20T16:44:51.333804+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:29.224265+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "BoC HELD the policy rate at 2.25% (5th consecutive hold). Hold = YES. EHIQ 63% \u2192 HIT. NOTE: the actual decision was June 10, not June 4 (no June 4 BoC meeting existed); resolved on the June rate decision.", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 113, "slug": "dmrc-provenance-rerate-2026", "name": "Digimarc (DMRC) outperforms the Russell 2000 on the AI-provenance re-rate", "category": "equity", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Does DMRC total-return-outperform the Russell 2000 (IWM) from the 2026-07-10 close ($6.66 vs IWM $295.99) through Dec 31 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.42, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.42, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "none", "market_id": "DMRC", "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-07-13T14:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T21:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-13T11:31:03.008850+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-13T11:31:03.008850+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "condition": "DMRC total-return outperforms IWM from 2026-07-10", "resolves_at": "2026-12-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 117, "slug": "fda-rare-pdufa-2026-08-23", "name": "FDA decision (PDUFA) \u2014 RARE DTX401 gene therapy", "category": "biotech", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the FDA approve DTX401 gene therapy (RARE) on/around 2026-08-23? glycogen storage disease Ia", "ehiq_prob": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-07-18T20:53:49.220461+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-08-23T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-09-01T18:36:35.168778+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-18T20:53:49.220461+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-01T18:36:35.168778+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": null, "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "T2", "resolution_source": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1515673/000119312526357185/rare-20260819.htm", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-08-23" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-08-23T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 90, "slug": "fivn-acquisition-or-restructure-2027", "name": "Five9 (FIVN) announces acquisition, take-private, or material restructuring by EOY 2027", "category": "equity", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Five9 (FIVN) announce an acquisition, take-private deal, or material strategic restructuring (CEO change + cost-cut program of >20% headcount) before Dec 31 2027?", "ehiq_prob": 0.6, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.7, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.6, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2027-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "condition": "FIVN acquisition/take-private/material restructuring", "resolves_at": "2027-12-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2027-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 146, "slug": "arcc-below-19-2026-09-18", "name": "ARCC closes below $19.00 on 2026-09-18", "category": "private_credit", "theme_bucket": "private_credit_opacity", "outcome_question": "Will Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) close below $19.00 on 2026-09-18?", "ehiq_prob": 0.45, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.35, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.45, "market_prob": 0.3125, "market_source": "instrument_implied", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.2625, "market_source_at_open": "instrument_implied", "opened_at": "2026-08-13T23:56:57.372774+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": "2026-08-13T23:56:57.372774+00:00", "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-13T23:56:57.372774+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-08T14:42:05.861288+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 13.75, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "source": "NASDAQ official close, no dividend adjustment", "condition": "ARCC official NASDAQ close < 19.00 on 2026-09-18", "resolves_at": "2026-09-18" } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": 36, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": "none", "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 45, "slug": "brazil-prez-flavio-bolsonaro-2026", "name": "Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro win (Brazil 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.33, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.28, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.38, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.33, "market_prob": 0.2795, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-flvio-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.4165, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T19:49:41.110066+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T19:49:41.110066+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-05-20T20:10:10.779000+00:00", "status": "withdrawn", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 5.05, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 220, "slug": "walter-chelsea-stake-sale-2026", "name": "Walter's Chelsea minority stake sale is agreed or announced by Dec 31", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": "sports_ownership_control", "outcome_question": "Will an agreed sale of Mark Walter's minority stake in Chelsea FC be announced or reported as agreed on or before 2026-12-31?", "ehiq_prob": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-23T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-23T19:41:35.794509+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-23T19:41:35.794509+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-23 from the Sharp digest", "resolves_at": "2026-12-31", "kill_trigger": "the Chelsea talks are exploratory and lapse quietly, which is the ordinary fate of most reported minority-stake discussions in football." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 216, "slug": "dlic-affiliated-below-13b-q3-2026", "name": "Delaware Life's affiliated line prints below $13.0B in the Q3 statement", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": "insurance_related_party", "outcome_question": "Will Delaware Life Insurance Company's Q3 2026 statutory statement report Total Investment in Parent, Subsidiaries and Affiliates below $13,000,000,000?", "ehiq_prob": 0.45, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.45, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-23T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-11-16T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-23T19:41:35.794509+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-23T19:41:35.794509+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-23 from the Sharp digest", "resolves_at": "2026-11-16", "kill_trigger": "the transfer completes in tranches straddling September 30. A tranche that lands October 3 counts for the fourth quarter, and the line prints in the fifteens while the program is entirely on schedule." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 80, "slug": "odet-2500-by-2028", "name": "Compagnie de l'Odet \u2014 pyramid-simplification cascade", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Compagnie de l'Odet SE (Euronext Paris: ODET) close above \u20ac2,500 cum-div on any trading day between 2026-06-03 and 2028-12-31?", "ehiq_prob": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.45, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "none", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-06-03T11:30:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-12-31T23:59:59+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-03T11:57:04.624296+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-03T11:57:04.624296+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-12-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 77, "slug": "eng-pezeshkian-out-by-june-30-2026-14", "name": "Pezeshkian out by June 30 2026 (Iranian president fade)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?", "ehiq_prob": 0.12, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.12, "market_prob": 0.357, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "1138908", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/masoud-pezeshkian-out-by", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.357, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-06-01T12:49:03.971813+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-07-23T17:28:35.745960+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-01T12:49:03.971813+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T03:15:04.607725+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": true, "edge_pp": -23.7, "resolved_by": "T2/Claude (Eric directive 2026-07-23, overdue-SLA clearing)", "resolution_source": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/1138908 (resolved NO); https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/06/iran-260601-presstv01.htm; https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/23/why-irans-president-pezeshkian-is-heading-to-pakistan-after-us-iran-talks", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": true, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 145, "slug": "fda-prax-pdufa-2026-09-27", "name": "FDA decision (PDUFA) \u2014 PRAX relutrigine", "category": "biotech", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the FDA approve relutrigine (PRAX) on/around 2026-09-27? developmental epileptic encephalopathies", "ehiq_prob": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-08-13T12:00:01.285542+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-27T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-13T12:00:01.285542+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-31T07:12:57.465069+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "FDA's own action on the relutrigine marketing application: the approval letter or the Drugs@FDA entry recording the action, or Praxis's 8-K disclosing the agency's decision. A CRL or a delay past the date is a NO.", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; FDA extended PDUFA 2026-06-29 (major amendment) from 2026-09-27 to 2026-12-27", "resolves_at": "2026-12-27" } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": "no_data", "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 48, "slug": "colombia-prez-espriella-2026", "name": "Abelardo de la Espriella win (Colombia 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.28, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.23, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.33, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.28, "market_prob": 0.445, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-abelardo-de-la-espriella-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.42, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T19:55:23.394637+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-21T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T19:55:23.394637+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-05-20T20:10:10.661000+00:00", "status": "withdrawn", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -16.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 40, "slug": "prez-2028-buttigieg-beats-newsom", "name": "2028 D primary \u2014 Buttigieg outperforms Newsom", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Pete Buttigieg win more total delegates than Gavin Newsom in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?", "ehiq_prob": 0.38, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.32, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.46, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.38, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.12, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-08-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T17:24:45.008305+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:25.824000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-08-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-08-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 250, "slug": "gpt-6-release-by-sept-15-2026", "name": "OpenAI releases GPT-6 by September 15 2026", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": "ai_frontier", "outcome_question": "Will OpenAI release GPT-6 by September 15, 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.4, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.6, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.465, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00", "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-09-02T08:44:59.194572+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-02T08:44:59.194572+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "evidence": "OpenAI's own official channels only: openai.com, the official OpenAI blog, or the public API model list. Third-party reporting of an unreleased or unannounced model does not resolve it.", "excluded": "A model shipped under any other designation resolves NO even if capability comparable: GPT-5.x, an o-series model, a codename, or a research preview not called GPT-6. This call is about the designation and the date, not the capability.", "criterion": "YES if, on or before 2026-09-15 23:59 America/New_York, OpenAI has made a model publicly available that OpenAI itself designates GPT-6. NO otherwise.", "graded_on": "ABSOLUTE TRACK, outcome only. No venue settlement exists for this call.", "prior_rule": "Venue settlement per the market's release criteria (public availability of a model OpenAI designates GPT-6); early resolution the day OpenAI ships.", "resolves_at": "2026-09-16", "restamped_at": "2026-09-06", "restamp_reason": "FORCED RE-STAMP, NOT A CONVENIENCE ONE. The criterion stamped 2026-09-02 graded on 'Polymarket settlement per the market's release criteria'. The declared slug will-gpt-6-be-released-by-september-15-2026 returns zero results from the Polymarket gamma API and last_market_success_at was NULL: no price was ever fetched and no settlement will ever occur. The call was reclassified to market_source='no_market' on 2026-09-06, so it must grade against the outcome itself. The direction of the call, the 0.50 probability and the 2026-09-16 resolution date are UNCHANGED. Only the grader changed, and it changed because the original grader does not exist." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": 14, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 138, "slug": "drake-post-umg-services-2026", "name": "Drake's next deal: services/distribution, not a major", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "When Drake's recording obligations to UMG end, will his next recording arrangement be an artist-services/distribution deal or a self-owned structure (HIT), rather than a new major-label recording deal (MISS)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.85, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.85, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-07-24T17:58:31.183000+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2029-01-01T04:59:59+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-24T17:58:31.294405+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-25T13:37:34.153000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "event": "Public announcement of Drake's post-UMG recording arrangement", "resolves": "services/distribution or self-owned = HIT; new major-label recording deal (UMG, Sony, Warner or subsidiaries, ownership-taking) = MISS" } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": "call", "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 139, "slug": "open-warrant-series-k-early-expiration-2026", "name": "Opendoor Series K warrant early-expiration condition triggers before 2026-11-20 expiry", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Opendoor's Series K warrants (OPENW, $9.00 exercise price) satisfy the Early Expiration Price Condition under the 2025 Warrant Agreement -- daily VWAP of OPEN common at or above $10.80 (120% of exercise price) on 20 trading days within any 30 consecutive VWAP trading day period -- on or before 5:00pm New York time, November 20, 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.05, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": null, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-08-05T21:22:48.378213+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-11-20T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-05T21:22:48.378213+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-05T21:22:48.378213+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": 107, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": "mechanism", "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 64, "slug": "colombia-presidential-valencia-2026", "name": "Paloma Valencia win (Colombia 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.1, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.08, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.13, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.1, "market_prob": 0.2, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "colombia-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.197, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-21T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-19T21:33:04.808349+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:14.755000+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": true, "edge_pp": 0.0, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 115, "slug": "capr-deramiocel-adcom-2026", "name": "FDA advisory committee votes favorably on Capricor deramiocel (DMD)", "category": "biotech", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the FDA Cellular, Tissue, and Gene Therapies Advisory Committee (CTGTAC) vote favorably (majority yes) on deramiocel (CAP-1002) for Duchenne muscular dystrophy? (July 29 2026)", "ehiq_prob": 0.6, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.6, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-07-18T18:28:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-07-29T23:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-08-13T10:44:57.233951+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-18T18:32:46.992791+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-13T10:44:57.233951+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "miss", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": false, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "T2/Claude (Eric directive 2026-08-13, event-rule resolution of overdue calls)", "resolution_source": "https://www.capricor.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/351/capricor-therapeutics-provides-update-on-fda-advisory ; https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/capricor-fda-vote-deramiocel-duchenne-cardiomyopathy/826465/", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-07-29" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 89, "slug": "brze-acquisition-or-restructure-2027", "name": "Braze (BRZE) announces acquisition, take-private, or material restructuring by EOY 2027", "category": "equity", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Braze (BRZE) announce an acquisition, take-private deal, or material strategic restructuring (CEO change + cost-cut program of >20% headcount) before Dec 31 2027?", "ehiq_prob": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.45, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2027-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "condition": "BRZE acquisition/take-private/material restructuring", "resolves_at": "2027-12-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2027-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 36, "slug": "prez-2028-harris", "name": "2028 presidency \u2014 Kamala Harris", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.015, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.01, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.03, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.015, "market_prob": 0.0365, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.054, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T17:18:49.647306+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:11.840000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -2.15, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-11-07" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 74, "slug": "iowa-senate-d-primary-2026", "name": "Iowa Senate D Primary \u2014 Turek over Wahls", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Nathan Turek win the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary?", "ehiq_prob": 0.66, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.75, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.66, "market_prob": 0.35, "market_source": "kalshi", "market_id": null, "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxkxsenateiad/iad/kxkxsenateiad-26", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.35, "market_source_at_open": "kalshi", "opened_at": "2026-05-28T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-02T12:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-03T09:36:43.181175+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-28T12:56:53.136776+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-03T09:36:43.181175+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": 31.000000000000007, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 103, "slug": "macro-2026-fed-hike-fade", "name": "No Fed rate hike in 2026 (fade the hike consensus)", "category": "macro", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the Federal Reserve hike rates at least once in 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.4, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.33, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.47, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.4, "market_prob": 0.7, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.47, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-07-02T18:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T20:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-03T02:02:23.152345+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:11.892000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -30.0, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-12-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 91, "slug": "openai-msft-restructure-2027", "name": "Microsoft and OpenAI announce material renegotiation of partnership terms by EOY 2027", "category": "corporate_strategy", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Microsoft and OpenAI announce a material renegotiation of their commercial partnership terms (revised profit-sharing, governance restructure, or equity-stake adjustment) by Dec 31 2027?", "ehiq_prob": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.75, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2027-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "condition": "MSFT/OpenAI material partnership renegotiation", "resolves_at": "2027-12-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2027-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 9, "slug": "bulgaria-radev-2026", "name": "Bulgaria \u2014 Radev presidential call", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Rumen Radev win the Bulgarian presidential vote?", "ehiq_prob": 0.85, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.85, "market_prob": 0.945, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-04-19T11:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-04-19T20:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-04-19T20:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:50.023505+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:26.437000+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 76, "slug": "bc-conservative-leadership-2026", "name": "BC Conservative Leadership \u2014 Elliott wins", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 BC Conservative Party leadership?", "ehiq_prob": 0.8, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.68, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.88, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.8, "market_prob": 0.81, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": null, "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bc-conservative-party-leadership-election-winner", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.81, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-28T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-05-30T12:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-05-31T12:28:04.003207+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-28T14:03:39.749996+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-29T13:57:08.922558+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "miss", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": false, "edge_pp": -1.0, "resolved_by": "t1-hygiene-2026-08-28", "resolution_source": "fact-check 2026-08-28: CBC/Global/Wikipedia \u2014 Findlay def. Caroline Elliott 51-49 final ballot 2026-05-30", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 32, "slug": "prez-2028-rubio", "name": "2028 presidency \u2014 Marco Rubio", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.1, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.07, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.13, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.1, "market_prob": 0.0875, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.1515, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T17:18:49.351326+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:12.197000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 1.25, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-11-07" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 81, "slug": "drake-umg-exit-2027", "name": "Drake exits UMG primary recording deal by EOY 2027", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Drake publicly exit his primary UMG recording deal (Republic / Cash Money / Young Money) by December 31, 2027 \u2014 defined as ANY of: (a) public announcement of departure from UMG, (b) public announcement of new label home, (c) public announcement of distribution-only / P&D structure replacing the primary recording deal, (d) lawsuit settlement disclosed as including exit terms?", "ehiq_prob": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.45, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "none", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-06-04T11:30:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2027-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-04T11:34:57.833829+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-04T11:34:57.833829+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2027-12-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2027-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 23, "slug": "scotus-birthright-citizenship-2026", "name": "Trump v. Barbara (No. 25-365) \u2014 birthright citizenship EO struck down", "category": "legal", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the Supreme Court strike down Trump Executive Order 14160 (ending birthright citizenship)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.78, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.72, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.85, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.78, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "manual", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T20:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T16:00:52.846012+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-29T13:57:08.222337+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "t1-hygiene-2026-08-28", "resolution_source": "fact-check 2026-08-28: SCOTUSblog + supremecourt.gov opinion PDF + law-firm memos", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 99, "slug": "scotus-trump-v-slaughter-ftc-removal-2026", "name": "Trump v. Slaughter (No. 25-332) \u2014 FTC removal & the narrowing of Humphrey's Executor", "category": "legal", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the Supreme Court uphold President Trump's removal of FTC Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter, narrowing Humphrey's Executor?", "ehiq_prob": 0.9, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.82, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.95, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.9, "market_prob": 0.95, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": null, "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/predictions/scotus", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.95, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-06-27T16:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-07-01T20:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-27T04:58:42.005522+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T06:33:22.271615+00:00", "status": "duplicate", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 102, "slug": "prez-2028-vance-overrated", "name": "JD Vance is overrated as the 2028 GOP favorite", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will JD Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?", "ehiq_prob": 0.32, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.3, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.38, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.32, "market_prob": 0.5025, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.41, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-07-02T18:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-08-31T12:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-02T07:23:29.258803+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:10.625000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -18.25, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-08-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-08-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 20, "slug": "senate-me-collins-2026", "name": "ME Senate \u2014 Collins retention", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Susan Collins (R) retain her Maine Senate seat in 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.42, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.58, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5, "market_prob": 0.285, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-the-republicans-win-the-maine-senate-race-in-2026", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/maine-senate-election-winner", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-04-19T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-11-04T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T16:00:52.629942+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:10.827000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 21.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-11-04" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-11-04T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 217, "slug": "clear-spring-affiliated-below-5b-q3-2026", "name": "Clear Spring's affiliated line prints below $5.0B in the Q3 statement", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": "insurance_related_party", "outcome_question": "Will Clear Spring Life and Annuity Company's Q3 2026 statutory statement report Total Investment in Parent, Subsidiaries and Affiliates below $5,000,000,000?", "ehiq_prob": 0.3, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.3, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-23T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-11-16T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-23T19:41:35.794509+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-23T19:41:35.794509+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-23 from the Sharp digest", "resolves_at": "2026-11-16", "kill_trigger": "Clear Spring gets folded into a group-level program on the Delaware Life model. The parent moved $6.5B in a single announcement, and a sibling agreement a seventh that size clears this line easily. Nothing published rules one out." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 37, "slug": "prez-2028-haley", "name": "2028 presidency: Nikki Haley", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.07, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.04, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.1, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.07, "market_prob": 0.0005, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-nikki-haley-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.0085, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T17:18:49.722729+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:11.311000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 6.95, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-11-07" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 97, "slug": "bad-bunny-spotify-top-artist-2026", "name": "Bad Bunny is the most-streamed global artist on Spotify for 2026", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Bad Bunny be named the #1 most-streamed global artist on Spotify Wrapped 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.87, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.83, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.9, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.87, "market_prob": 0.855, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-bad-bunny-be-the-top-spotify-artist-for-2026", "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.8, "market_source_at_open": "kalshi", "opened_at": "2026-06-25T15:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-03T12:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-26T22:49:48.364428+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:11.483000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 1.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-12-03" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-03T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 218, "slug": "dlic-no-further-restatement-q3-2026", "name": "Delaware Life files Q3 with no further restatement of any prior period", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": "insurance_related_party", "outcome_question": "Will Delaware Life Insurance Company file its Q3 2026 statutory statement without restating any prior period?", "ehiq_prob": 0.7, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.7, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-23T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-11-16T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-23T19:41:35.794509+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-23T19:41:35.794509+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-23 from the Sharp digest", "resolves_at": "2026-11-16", "kill_trigger": "any second correction to a prior period, of any size. We're not grading how big a restatement is, only whether there is one." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 219, "slug": "ambest-downgrade-group1001-life-2027", "name": "AM Best downgrades the Group 1001 Life Annuity Group below A- by June 30 2027", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": "insurance_related_party", "outcome_question": "Will AM Best downgrade the Financial Strength Rating of the Group 1001 Life Annuity Group below A- on or before 2027-06-30?", "ehiq_prob": 0.3, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.3, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-23T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2027-06-30T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-23T19:41:35.794509+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-23T19:41:35.794509+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-23 from the Sharp digest", "resolves_at": "2027-06-30", "kill_trigger": "the Q3 and Q4 statements show the affiliated line falling on schedule. AM Best said execution risk, and execution delivered removes the reason for the outlook." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 38, "slug": "prez-2028-shapiro", "name": "2028 presidency \u2014 Josh Shapiro", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.08, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.05, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.11, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.08, "market_prob": 0.0345, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.0295, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T17:18:49.789900+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:11.557000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 4.55, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-11-07" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 58, "slug": "clarity-act-passes-2026", "name": "CLARITY Act signed into law by Dec 31 2026", "category": "macro", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (HR 3633) be passed by both chambers and signed into law by December 31, 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.62, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.68, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.62, "market_prob": 0.245, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.74, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-11T00:22:57.248689+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": "2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:00", "created_at": "2026-05-11T00:22:57.248689+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-24T08:11:06.377671+00:00", "status": "closed", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 37.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-12-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 63, "slug": "colombia-presidential-cepeda-2026", "name": "Iv\u00e1n Cepeda Castro win (Colombia 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Iv\u00e1n Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.2, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.17, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.24, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.2, "market_prob": 0.42, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "colombia-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.385, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-21T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-24T00:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-19T21:33:04.730709+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-24T21:41:24.703000+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": true, "edge_pp": -22.0, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 44, "slug": "brazil-prez-lula-2026", "name": "Lula da Silva re-election (Brazil 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.38, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.33, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.43, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.38, "market_prob": 0.455, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.405, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T19:49:41.110066+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T19:49:41.110066+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-05-20T20:10:10.743000+00:00", "status": "withdrawn", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -7.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 107, "slug": "sc-senate-graham-vacancy-2026", "name": "Graham's SC Senate seat stays Republican, decided in the Aug 11 GOP primary by Trump's endorsement \u2014 not a November toss-up", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will a Republican win the South Carolina US Senate seat (Lindsey Graham vacancy) in the November 3, 2026 election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.87, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.83, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.9, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.87, "market_prob": 0.865, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-the-republicans-win-the-south-carolina-senate-race-in-2026", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/south-carolina-senate-election-winner", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.81, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-07-12T13:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": "2026-09-01T18:50:20.176136+00:00", "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-11-03T23:59:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-12T12:26:04.660946+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:11.638000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 0.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "Polymarket settlement of `will-the-republicans-win-the-south-carolina-senate-race-in-2026`. That market resolves on the WINNER'S PARTY in the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, treating a candidate as representing a party when they are that party's nominee. This call asks whether A REPUBLICAN wins the seat, which is the same proposition the market pays on, so the venue settles it directly. Verified against the venue's published description 2026-09-01.", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-11-03" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-11-03T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 96, "slug": "spcx-below-ipo-pre-lockup-2026", "name": "SPCX trades below $135 IPO price before December 2026 lock-up expiry", "category": "markets", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will SPCX print an intraday trade below its $135 IPO price on or before the standard 180-day lock-up expiry (2026-12-09)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.4, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": null, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "gray_market_indications", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "gray_market_indications", "opened_at": "2026-06-12T13:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-09T21:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-20T16:45:09.924716+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:28.720000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "target", "params": { "level": 135, "expire": "2026-12-09", "trigger": "SPCX trades below 135", "direction": "below" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-09T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 110, "slug": "future-wc-halftime-2026", "name": "Future performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show", "category": "culture", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Future perform at (or be announced as a performer for) the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show (July 19 2026)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5, "market_prob": 0.04, "market_source": "kalshi", "market_id": "KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-FUT", "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxworldcuphalftime/who-will-perform-at-event/kxworldcuphalftime-26", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.06, "market_source_at_open": "kalshi", "opened_at": "2026-07-13T02:30:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-07-20T00:08:52.983000+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-13T01:24:10.537092+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-29T13:57:09.204349+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "miss", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": false, "edge_pp": 46.0, "resolved_by": "t1-hygiene-2026-08-28", "resolution_source": "fact-check 2026-08-28: USA Today/Wikipedia/Global Citizen \u2014 Madonna/Shakira/BTS/Bieber headlined; no Drake/Future; Kalshi settled NO", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 98, "slug": "scotus-trump-v-cook-fed-removal-2026", "name": "Trump v. Cook (No. 25A312) \u2014 can the President fire a Fed Governor without cause?", "category": "legal", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the Supreme Court allow President Trump to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook without cause?", "ehiq_prob": 0.3, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.2, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.42, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.3, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-06-27T16:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-07-01T20:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-29T20:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-27T04:58:41.763515+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-29T13:57:08.502317+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "t1-hygiene-2026-08-28", "resolution_source": "fact-check 2026-08-28: SCOTUSblog + supremecourt.gov opinion PDF + law-firm memos", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 34, "slug": "prez-2028-tucker", "name": "2028 presidency \u2014 Tucker Carlson", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.02, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.01, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.04, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.02, "market_prob": 0.0135, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-tucker-carlson-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.0285, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T17:18:49.500084+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:11.698000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 0.65, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-11-07" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 49, "slug": "colombia-prez-cepeda-2026", "name": "Iv\u00e1n Cepeda Castro win (Colombia 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Iv\u00e1n Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.2, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.15, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.25, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.2, "market_prob": 0.425, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-ivan-cepeda-castro-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.385, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T19:55:23.394637+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-21T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T19:55:23.394637+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-05-20T20:10:10.703000+00:00", "status": "withdrawn", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -22.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 57, "slug": "colombia-prez-lopez-2026", "name": "Claudia L\u00f3pez win (Colombia 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Claudia L\u00f3pez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.05, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.02, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.08, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.05, "market_prob": 0.0015, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-claudia-lpez-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.0015, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T20:29:37.435770+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-21T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-05-11T12:06:03.671138+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T20:29:37.435770+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-05-11T12:06:03.671138+00:00", "status": "withdrawn", "resolution": "calibration_note", "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 4.85, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 16, "slug": "dave-q1-fy26", "name": "DAVE Q1 FY26 \u2014 direction right, magnitude calibration", "category": "earnings", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will DAVE Q1 FY26 deliver record credit + record buyback (predicted)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.75, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.75, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "sell_side_consensus", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "sell_side_consensus", "opened_at": "2026-05-04T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": null, "resolved_at": "2026-05-05T20:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:50.511595+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-29T13:57:09.344534+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "calibration_note", "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "t1-hygiene-2026-08-28", "resolution_source": "hygiene 2026-08-28: PARTIAL/calibration row; not a binary outcome", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 62, "slug": "colombia-presidential-espriella-2026", "name": "Abelardo de la Espriella win (Colombia 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.28, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.24, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.32, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.28, "market_prob": 0.4, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "colombia-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.42, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-21T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-24T00:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-19T21:33:04.653020+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-24T21:41:24.703000+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "calibration_note", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": false, "edge_pp": -12.0, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 2, "slug": "la-mayoral-bass-2026", "name": "LA mayoral \u2014 Karen Bass first-round winner", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Karen Bass finish first in the June 2 2026 LA mayoral primary (first-round winner)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.66, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.6, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.72, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.66, "market_prob": 0.45, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "los-angeles-mayoral-election-117-bass", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/los-angeles-mayoral-election-117", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.45, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T15:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-02T23:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:28.511425+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:49.507207+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:28.511425+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "Bass finished 1st in the LA mayoral first round (~36%), advancing to a Nov 3 runoff (no outright >50%). First-round winner = YES. EHIQ 66% \u2192 HIT.", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": 21.0, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 61, "slug": "brazil-presidential-flavio-2026", "name": "Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro win (Brazil 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.22, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.18, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.27, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.33, "market_prob": 0.4745, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-flvio-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.416, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": "2026-09-01T18:50:20.176136+00:00", "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-10-25T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-19T21:33:04.572978+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:11.782000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -25.45, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "Polymarket settlement of `will-flvio-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election`. That market resolves to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election and, in its own words, INCLUDES any potential second round. First round 2026-10-04; runoff, if one is held, 2026-10-25. If the result is not known by 2027-06-30 the venue resolves the market to Other. Verified against the venue's published description 2026-09-01.", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-10-25" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-10-25T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 85, "slug": "bx-stock-below-150-by-eoy-2026", "name": "Blackstone (BX) stock closes below $150 on at least one day by EOY 2026", "category": "equity", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will BX stock close below $150 on at least one trading day between Jun 6 2026 and Dec 31 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.45, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "target", "params": { "level": 150, "expire": "2026-12-31", "trigger": "BX closes below 150", "direction": "below" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 252, "slug": "senate-republican-control-midterms-2026", "name": "Republicans hold the Senate in the 2026 midterms", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": "us_midterms_2026", "outcome_question": "Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?", "ehiq_prob": 0.68, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.6, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.76, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.68, "market_prob": 0.485, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-the-republican-party-control-the-senate-after-the-2026-midterm-elections", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.495, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00", "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-11-03T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-09-02T08:44:59.194572+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:12.349000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 19.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "Venue settlement once control is determinable under the market's rules.", "graded_on": "Polymarket settlement per the market's stated decision-desk sources.", "resolves_at": "2026-11-03" } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": 62, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 18, "slug": "senate-ga-ossoff-2026", "name": "GA Senate \u2014 Ossoff retention", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Jon Ossoff (D) retain his Georgia Senate seat in 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.62, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.58, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.68, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.62, "market_prob": 0.925, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-the-democrats-win-the-georgia-senate-race-in-2026", "market_url": "", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-04-19T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-11-04T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T16:00:52.498033+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:12.038000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -30.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-11-04" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-11-04T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 106, "slug": "aapl-continuity-vs-ai-basket-2028", "name": "Apple outperforms the AI intelligence-layer basket (NVDA/MSFT/GOOGL/META) by Jan 2028", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Apple (AAPL) deliver a higher total return than an equal-weight basket of NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META over the 18 months from 2026-07-06 to 2028-01-06? Entry anchors (2026-07-02 close): AAPL 308.63; equal-weight basket avg 382.03 (NVDA 194.83, MSFT 390.49, GOOGL 359.91, META 582.90). YES if AAPL total return exceeds the basket's equal-weight-average total return over the window.", "ehiq_prob": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.62, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "none", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-07-06T12:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-01-06T23:59:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-06T12:40:40.509519+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-06T12:40:40.509519+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-01-06" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-01-06T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 86, "slug": "fsk-q2-non-accrual-deteriorate-2026", "name": "FSK Q2 2026 non-accrual rate increases >50bps vs Q1", "category": "private_credit", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will FSK's Q2 2026 reported non-accrual rate increase more than 50 basis points vs Q1 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.6, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.7, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.6, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-09-01T18:44:35.328039+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-01T18:44:35.328039+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "miss", "actual_outcome": null, "hit": false, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "T2", "resolution_source": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1422183/000162828026053783/fsk-20260630.htm", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "condition": "FSK Q2 non-accrual +>50bps vs Q1", "resolves_at": "2026-08-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 41, "slug": "prez-2028-tucker-beats-vance", "name": "2028 R primary \u2014 Tucker beats Vance head-to-head (if both run)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Conditional on Tucker Carlson declaring as a 2028 R primary candidate with serious organization: will he win more total delegates than JD Vance?", "ehiq_prob": 0.35, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.28, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.45, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.35, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "manual", "market_id": null, "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-08-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T17:32:20.911152+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:25.504000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 26.095017381228274, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-08-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-08-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 71, "slug": "spcx-180d-lockup-below-ipo-2026", "name": "SpaceX (SPCX) \u2014 180-day lock-up close below IPO price", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will SPCX close BELOW its IPO price on the trading day of the 180-day lock-up expiration?", "ehiq_prob": 0.35, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.3, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.4, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.35, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "manual", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-05-20T20:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-09T21:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-21T01:29:29.914784+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:09.879000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-12-09" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-09T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 13, "slug": "carney-usmca-2025", "name": "Carney USMCA concessions", "category": "macro", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Carney make 3 specific concessions to Trump on USMCA (predicted in advance)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.7, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.7, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "sell_side_consensus", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2025-04-01T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": null, "resolved_at": "2025-09-01T00:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:50.306157+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:27.641000+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": true, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": true, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 142, "slug": "fda-nuvl-pdufa-2026-09-18", "name": "FDA decision (PDUFA) \u2014 NUVL zidesamtinib", "category": "biotech", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the FDA approve zidesamtinib (NUVL) on/around 2026-09-18? ROS1 NSCLC", "ehiq_prob": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-08-06T13:44:59.730300+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-09-05T12:06:22.123106+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-06T13:44:59.730300+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-05T12:06:22.123106+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": null, "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "Eric Jackson", "resolution_source": "https://www.fda.gov/drugs/resources-information-approved-drugs/fda-approves-zidesamtinib-ros1-positive-non-small-cell-lung-cancer", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; FDA action came early: NDA approval letter 2026-07-22, ahead of the stated 2026-09-18 PDUFA date", "resolves_at": "2026-07-22" } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": "no_data", "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 70, "slug": "spcx-eod1-mcap-over-2t-2026", "name": "SpaceX (SPCX) \u2014 first-day close market cap > $2 trillion", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will SPCX close its first day of trading with a market capitalization above $2 trillion (basic shares outstanding)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.6, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "manual", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-05-20T20:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-12T20:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:29.508755+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-21T01:29:29.833061+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:29.508755+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "SPCX day-1 closing market cap was ~$2.1 trillion, above the $2T threshold. >$2T = YES. EHIQ 55% \u2192 HIT.", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 253, "slug": "iowa-governor-winner-party-2026", "name": "Democrats win the 2026 Iowa governor race", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": "us_midterms_2026", "outcome_question": "Will the Democratic nominee win the 2026 Iowa governor race?", "ehiq_prob": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.45, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55, "market_prob": 0.755, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-the-democrats-win-the-iowa-governor-race-in-2026", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iowa-governor-winner-2026", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.765, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00", "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-11-03T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-09-02T08:44:59.194572+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:12.278000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -20.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "Venue settlement on the AP race call.", "graded_on": "The Associated Press race call for Iowa governor, the settlement source named in the market's rules.", "resolves_at": "2026-11-03" } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": 62, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 87, "slug": "btc-below-50k-by-eoy-2026", "name": "BTC closes below $50,000 on at least one day by EOY 2026", "category": "macro", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will BTC close below $50,000 (USD) on at least one calendar day between Jun 6 2026 and Dec 31 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.4, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.6, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-12-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 17, "slug": "senate-control-2026", "name": "US Senate control 2026", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Democrats control the US Senate after the 2026 midterms?", "ehiq_prob": 0.47, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.43, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.47, "market_prob": 0.525, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-the-democratic-party-control-the-senate-after-the-2026-midterm-elections", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.55, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-04-19T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": "2026-09-01T18:50:20.176136+00:00", "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-11-04T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T16:00:52.425434+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:12.405000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -5.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "Polymarket settlement of `will-the-democratic-party-control-the-senate-after-the-2026-midterm-elections`. That market resolves to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 midterm, meaning a majority of the chamber's voting seats. Verified against the venue's published description 2026-09-01.", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-11-04" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-11-04T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 88, "slug": "v18-stress-three-day-q3-2026", "name": "v18 model prints STRESS regime for at least 3 consecutive days in Q3 2026", "category": "macro", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the v18 model print STRESS regime for at least 3 consecutive trading days between Jul 1 2026 and Sep 30 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.72, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.6, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.82, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.72, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-09-30" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 10, "slug": "nxdr-q1-fy26", "name": "NXDR Q1 FY26 \u2014 beat consensus", "category": "earnings", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Nextdoor Q1 FY26 revenue beat consensus by >5pp?", "ehiq_prob": 0.75, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.75, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "sell_side_consensus", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "sell_side_consensus", "opened_at": "2026-05-06T08:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-05-06T20:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-05-06T20:30:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:50.094869+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:26.704000+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 25, "slug": "scotus-nrsc-v-fec-2026", "name": "NRSC v. FEC (No. 24-621) \u2014 coordinated party expenditure limits struck", "category": "legal", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the Supreme Court strike down coordinated party expenditure limits in NRSC v FEC?", "ehiq_prob": 0.7, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.78, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.7, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "manual", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T20:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T16:00:52.982060+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-29T13:57:08.081944+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "t1-hygiene-2026-08-28", "resolution_source": "fact-check 2026-08-28: SCOTUSblog + supremecourt.gov opinion PDF + law-firm memos", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 192, "slug": "will-the-merger-described-in-weatherford-international-plc-w-20261004", "name": "Will the merger described in Weatherford International plc (WFRD)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?", "category": "catalyst", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the merger described in Weatherford International plc (WFRD)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?", "ehiq_prob": 0.1, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.1, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-08-21T15:42:02.659639+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-21T15:42:02.659639+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-21T15:42:02.659639+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1603923/000110465926080770/0001104659-26-080770-index.htm", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "event": "Will the merger described in Weatherford International plc (WFRD)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?", "source": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1603923/000110465926080770/0001104659-26-080770-index.htm", "resolves_at": "2026-10-04", "kill_trigger": "A termination 8-K, a withdrawn proxy, or a second-request/injunction that pushes the outside date past the resolution date." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": "call", "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 7, "slug": "drake-spotify-2026", "name": "Drake top Spotify artist 2026", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Drake be the top artist on Spotify in 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.2, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.17, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.23, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.2, "market_prob": 0.1, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-drake-be-the-top-spotify-artist-for-2026", "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.29, "market_source_at_open": "kalshi", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:49.872488+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:12.481000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 10.0, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-12-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 100, "slug": "scotus-trans-sports-bans-hecox-bpj-2026", "name": "Little v. Hecox / West Virginia v. B.P.J. \u2014 state bans on transgender girls in female sports", "category": "legal", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the Supreme Court uphold state laws barring transgender girls from female school sports (Little v. Hecox / West Virginia v. B.P.J.)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.82, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.72, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.9, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.82, "market_prob": 0.72, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": null, "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/predictions/scotus", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.72, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-06-27T16:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-07-01T20:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T20:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-27T04:58:42.246130+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-29T13:57:08.361946+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "t1-hygiene-2026-08-28", "resolution_source": "fact-check 2026-08-28: SCOTUSblog + supremecourt.gov opinion PDF + law-firm memos", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 75, "slug": "la-mayor-2-slot-2026", "name": "LA Mayor \u2014 Raman takes #2 runoff slot (over Pratt)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Nithya Raman finish second \u2014 taking the runoff slot past Spencer Pratt \u2014 in the 2026 LA mayoral primary?", "ehiq_prob": 0.18, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.14, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.24, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55, "market_prob": 0.35, "market_source": "manual", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.35, "market_source_at_open": "manual", "opened_at": "2026-05-28T15:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-02T12:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-08-26T20:45:39.702959+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-28T13:56:30.796276+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-26T20:46:49.061175+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "miss", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": false, "edge_pp": -17.0, "resolved_by": "T2; reported by subscriber Horea Chis 2026-08-26", "resolution_source": "https://abc7news.com/post/california-election-results-progressive-nithya-raman-beats-spencer-pratt-take-2nd-spot-los-angeles-mayors-race/19259806/", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 148, "slug": "live-nation-consent-judgment-2026", "name": "Live Nation DOJ consent judgment entered by Dec 31 2026", "category": "legal", "theme_bucket": "music_business", "outcome_question": "Is the DOJ/Live Nation antitrust consent judgment entered by a federal court on or before 2026-12-31?", "ehiq_prob": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.72, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-16T16:19:03.551711+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-16T16:19:03.583749+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-22T11:17:47.259198+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "The federal court docket in United States v. Live Nation Entertainment (S.D.N.Y.): entry of the consent judgment as a docketed order. Readable via CourtListener/RECAP.", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-16 from the Sharp digest", "kill_trigger": "the judge orders an evidentiary hearing or appoints an amicus" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 150, "slug": "warner-bain-rhcp-catalog-2026", "name": "Warner/Bain announce the Red Hot Chili Peppers catalog by Dec 31 2026", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": "music_business", "outcome_question": "Do Warner Music Group and Bain Capital publicly announce an agreement to acquire the Red Hot Chili Peppers catalog on or before 2026-12-31?", "ehiq_prob": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-16T16:19:03.551711+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-16T16:19:03.583749+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-22T11:17:47.259198+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "A public announcement by Warner Music Group or Bain Capital of an agreement to acquire the catalog, or a WMG securities filing disclosing it. An unconfirmed press report is not sufficient.", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-16 from the Sharp digest", "kill_trigger": "a competing bid from Primary Wave or Hipgnosis producing a contested process" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 24, "slug": "scotus-louisiana-v-callais-2026", "name": "Louisiana v Callais \u2014 VRA Section 2 narrowed", "category": "legal", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the Supreme Court narrow VRA Section 2 in Louisiana v Callais (rule for state of Louisiana)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.62, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.7, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.62, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "manual", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T00:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T16:00:52.914899+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-30T20:43:02.489308+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "calibration_note", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": true, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 101, "slug": "newsom-2028-dem-nomination", "name": "Gavin Newsom \u2014 2028 Democratic nomination", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?", "ehiq_prob": 0.16, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.1, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.22, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.16, "market_prob": 0.1425, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.204, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-08-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-30T21:23:01.709792+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:12.554000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 1.75, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-08-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-08-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 1, "slug": "musk-altman-2026", "name": "Musk v Altman verdict", "category": "legal", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Elon Musk win his lawsuit against Sam Altman / OpenAI?", "ehiq_prob": 0.3, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.25, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.35, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.3, "market_prob": 0.4, "market_source": "kalshi", "market_id": "KXMUSKOAI-26", "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmuskoai/elon-win-vs-open-ai/kxmuskoai-26", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.4, "market_source_at_open": "kalshi", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T14:30:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-05-22T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:49.425219+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:07.247000+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": true, "edge_pp": 5.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 151, "slug": "nba-expansion-32-teams-2026", "name": "NBA approves expansion to 32 teams by Dec 31 2026", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": "sports_ownership_control", "outcome_question": "Does the NBA Board of Governors take a final vote approving expansion to 32 teams on or before 2026-12-31?", "ehiq_prob": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-16T16:19:03.551711+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-16T16:19:03.583749+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-22T11:17:47.259198+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "The NBA Board of Governors' recorded vote on expansion to 32 teams, as announced by the league.", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-16 from the Sharp digest", "kill_trigger": "any indication the vote moves to the 2027 calendar" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 152, "slug": "walter-controls-dodgers-2027", "name": "Mark Walter still controls the Los Angeles Dodgers on Dec 31 2027", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": "sports_ownership_control", "outcome_question": "On 2027-12-31, does Mark Walter remain the controlling owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers, as recognized by Major League Baseball?", "ehiq_prob": 0.45, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.72, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-15T12:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2027-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-18T03:32:34.804346+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-22T11:17:47.259198+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "Major League Baseball's recognition of the Dodgers' control person, as reflected in the league's published ownership record on 2027-12-31.", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-15 on the Substack; revised 2026-08-17 on the Q1 filings; row written 2026-08-17", "kill_trigger": "the Q2 2026 statutory statements show invested assets roughly flat near $48B with the affiliated line down materially, which is the signature of actual loan repayment rather than balance-sheet growth" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2027-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 21, "slug": "senate-nc-tillis-2026", "name": "NC Senate \u2014 Tillis retention", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Thom Tillis (R) retain his North Carolina Senate seat in 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.6, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.7, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-04-19T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-11-04T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T16:00:52.697640+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:20.706000+00:00", "status": "withdrawn", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 22, "slug": "scotus-trump-v-slaughter-2026", "name": "Trump v. Slaughter (No. 25-332) \u2014 Humphrey's Executor overturned", "category": "legal", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the Supreme Court overturn Humphrey's Executor (1935) on FTC removal protections?", "ehiq_prob": 0.75, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.7, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.82, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.75, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "manual", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-29T20:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T16:00:52.770523+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-29T13:57:07.939497+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "t1-hygiene-2026-08-28", "resolution_source": "fact-check 2026-08-28: SCOTUSblog + supremecourt.gov opinion PDF + law-firm memos", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 105, "slug": "culture-2026-bad-bunny-global-1", "name": "Bad Bunny, not Drake, is the 2026 global #1 artist", "category": "culture", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Bad Bunny finish 2026 as the #1 global artist by Spotify streams?", "ehiq_prob": 0.86, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.85, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.88, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.86, "market_prob": 0.71, "market_source": "kalshi", "market_id": null, "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtopartist/top-artist-on-spotify/kxtopartist-26b", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.71, "market_source_at_open": "kalshi", "opened_at": "2026-07-02T18:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-03T02:02:23.316286+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-03T02:02:23.316286+00:00", "status": "duplicate", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-12-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 53, "slug": "ca-gov-hilton-2026", "name": "Steve Hilton \u2014 CA Governor primary first-place", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Steve Hilton finish first in the June 2 2026 California gubernatorial jungle primary?", "ehiq_prob": 0.25, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.18, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.33, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.25, "market_prob": 0.097, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "california-governor-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/california-governor-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.097, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-02T23:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:27.942064+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T20:04:01.287006+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:27.942064+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "Hilton finished 2nd (24.7%) \u2014 advanced but NOT first place. First-place = NO. EHIQ 25% \u2192 HIT (correctly faded).", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": true, "edge_pp": 15.3, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 59, "slug": "gamestop-acquire-ebay-2026", "name": "GameStop acquires eBay (Cohen $125 bid)", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.08, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.06, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.12, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.08, "market_prob": 0.075, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-gamestop-acquire-ebay", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-gamestop-acquire-ebay", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.2, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-19T21:33:04.285445+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:12.714000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 0.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-12-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 143, "slug": "fda-rare-ux111-pdufa-2026-09-19", "name": "FDA decision (PDUFA) \u2014 RARE (Ultragenyx) UX111", "category": "biotech", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the FDA approve UX111 (ABEO) on/around 2026-09-19? Sanfilippo syndrome A", "ehiq_prob": 0.75, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-08-06T13:44:59.730300+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-06T13:44:59.730300+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-31T07:12:57.465069+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "FDA's own action on the UX111 marketing application: the approval letter or the Drugs@FDA entry recording the action, or Abeona's 8-K disclosing the agency's decision. A CRL or a delay past the date is a NO.", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event", "resolves_at": "2026-09-19" } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": "no_data", "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 108, "slug": "sc-senate-gop-nominee-2026", "name": "Pamela Evette wins the SC GOP Senate primary (Fry the dark horse, not Mace)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Republican U.S. Senate primary? Russell Fry is the loyalist dark horse; the establishment/media favorite Nancy Mace is not our pick. Trump's endorsement is dispositive.", "ehiq_prob": 0.25, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.18, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.32, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.25, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "none", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-07-12T19:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-08-25T23:59:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-09-01T18:39:04.704211+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-12T16:27:41.474485+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-01T18:39:04.704211+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "miss", "actual_outcome": null, "hit": false, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "T2", "resolution_source": "https://www.npr.org/2026/08/25/nx-s1-5943041/south-carolina-senate-runoff-graham-norman-trump-endorsement", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-08-25" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 162, "slug": "fda-ptgx-pdufa-2026-09-30", "name": "FDA decision (PDUFA) \u2014 PTGX rusfertide", "category": "biotech", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the FDA approve rusfertide (PTGX) on/around 2026-09-30? polycythemia vera", "ehiq_prob": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-08-20T12:00:02.424923+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-09-05T12:07:58.301376+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-20T12:00:02.424923+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-05T12:07:58.301376+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": null, "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "Eric Jackson", "resolution_source": "https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-drug-its-kind-polycythemia-vera-rare-blood-disorder", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; FDA action came early: approval announcement 2026-08-28, ahead of the stated 2026-09-30 PDUFA date", "resolves_at": "2026-08-28" } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": "no_data", "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 31, "slug": "prez-2028-newsom", "name": "2028 presidency \u2014 Gavin Newsom", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.15, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.12, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.18, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.15, "market_prob": 0.0725, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.1665, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T17:18:49.275647+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:12.766000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 7.75, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-11-07" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 50, "slug": "colombia-prez-valencia-2026", "name": "Paloma Valencia win (Colombia 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.1, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.07, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.14, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.1, "market_prob": 0.1465, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-paloma-valencia-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.1965, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T19:55:23.394637+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-21T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T19:55:23.394637+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-05-20T20:10:10.549000+00:00", "status": "withdrawn", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -4.65, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 12, "slug": "psec-q3-fy26", "name": "PSEC Q3 FY26 \u2014 Pebbles II confirmation", "category": "earnings", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will PSEC Q3 FY26 confirm the First Pebble Substack thesis (distribution coverage breakdown)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.75, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.75, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "sell_side_consensus", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "sell_side_consensus", "opened_at": "2026-04-15T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-05-08T20:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-05-08T16:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:50.235026+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:27.371000+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 92, "slug": "drake-iceman-w4-units-2026", "name": "Drake Iceman Week 4 EAU > 120K", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Drake Iceman Week 4 EAU print greater than 120,000 (Billboard tracking week ending approximately Jun 12 2026)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.75, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.75, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-06-08T02:52:54.954486+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-13T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:29.928168+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-08T02:52:54.954486+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:29.928168+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "Iceman held #1 in Week 4 with 133K equivalent album units (week ending June 11), above the 120K bar. >120K = YES. EHIQ 75% \u2192 HIT.", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 43, "slug": "toronto-mayoral-bradford-2026", "name": "Brad Bradford win (Toronto Mayor 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.22, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.19, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.26, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.22, "market_prob": 0.065, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-brad-bradford-win-the-2026-toronto-mayoral-election-415", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/toronto-mayoral-election-winner-545", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.17, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": "2026-09-01T18:50:20.176136+00:00", "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-10-26T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T19:33:18.703726+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:12.841000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 15.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "Polymarket settlement of `will-brad-bradford-win-the-2026-toronto-mayoral-election-415`. That market resolves to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of the election scheduled 2026-10-26. Temporary, interim or placeholder mayors appointed before the election do not count. Verified against the venue's published description 2026-09-01.", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-10-26" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-10-26T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 4, "slug": "la-mayoral-pratt-2026", "name": "LA mayoral \u2014 Spencer Pratt first-round winner", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the June 2 2026 LA mayoral primary (first-round winner)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.2, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.17, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.23, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.2, "market_prob": 0.18, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "los-angeles-mayoral-election-117-pratt", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/los-angeles-mayoral-election-117", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.18, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T15:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-02T23:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:28.796077+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:49.656149+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:28.796077+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "Pratt led for 2nd on election night (~29%) but fell to 3rd as ballots counted, locked out of the runoff. Not first. First-round winner = NO. EHIQ 20% \u2192 HIT.", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": true, "edge_pp": 2.0, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 79, "slug": "drake-iceman-weeks-at-no1-2026", "name": "Drake 'Iceman' weeks at #1 on Billboard 200", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Drake's 'Iceman' total 4 or more weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200?", "ehiq_prob": 0.72, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.78, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.72, "market_prob": 0.765, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "how-many-weeks-will-iceman-be-no1-on-the-billboard-200-866", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-weeks-will-iceman-be-no1-on-the-billboard-200-866", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.765, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-06-02T14:30:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-09-01T12:43:20.793139+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-02T14:54:30.014536+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-01T12:43:20.793139+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": null, "hit": true, "edge_pp": -4.5, "resolved_by": "T2", "resolution_source": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=how-many-weeks-will-iceman-be-no1-on-the-billboard-200-866", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-09-01" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 56, "slug": "gme-ebay-acquisition-2026", "name": "GameStop acquires eBay", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will GameStop acquire eBay?", "ehiq_prob": 0.08, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.05, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.12, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.08, "market_prob": 0.145, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-gamestop-acquire-ebay", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-gamestop-acquire-ebay", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.195, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T20:22:20.117894+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T20:22:20.117894+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-05-20T20:10:10.816000+00:00", "status": "withdrawn", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -6.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 26, "slug": "scotus-mullin-v-al-otro-lado-2026", "name": "Mullin v. Al Otro Lado (No. 25-5) \u2014 government wins on asylum metering", "category": "legal", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the Supreme Court rule for the government in Mullin v Al Otro Lado on asylum-seeker turnback authority?", "ehiq_prob": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.6, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.72, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "manual", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-25T14:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T16:00:53.059769+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-29T13:57:07.739282+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "t1-hygiene-2026-08-28", "resolution_source": "fact-check 2026-08-28: SCOTUSblog + supremecourt.gov opinion PDF + law-firm memos", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 68, "slug": "v18-btc-regime-shift-may20", "name": "v18 BTC regime shifted to risk-on (gate ON, score 0.619)", "category": "macro", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will BTC spot price on 2026-06-10 (21 days forward) close at or above the 2026-05-20 close?", "ehiq_prob": 0.619, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.68, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.619, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": "v18-live", "market_url": "", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-05-20T19:30:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-10T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-07-23T17:28:35.745960+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-20T18:33:00.598064+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:18.850000+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "miss", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": false, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "T2/Claude (Eric directive 2026-07-23, overdue-SLA clearing)", "resolution_source": "Yahoo Finance BTC-USD daily closes; Binance BTCUSDT 1d klines (cross-checked, both -20.7%)", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 66, "slug": "drake-next-deal-1070M-2026", "name": "Drake next deal \u2014 $1.07B all-rights forecast", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Drake's next deal land in $650M-$1.4B all-rights value to him AND with an ownership-bearing structure (P&D / outside partnership / own arm's-length entity), versus a conventional incumbent re-sign on Universal's terms?", "ehiq_prob": 0.62, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.67, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.62, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": "", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-05-20T12:44:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2027-11-20T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-20T15:30:34.437442+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:18.117000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2027-11-20" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2027-11-20T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 11, "slug": "open-q1-fy26", "name": "OPEN Q1 FY26 \u2014 Reffkin pattern Type A", "category": "earnings", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will OPEN Q1 FY26 deliver a full Reffkin-pattern Type A management presentation (5/5 markers)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.7, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.7, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "sell_side_consensus", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "sell_side_consensus", "opened_at": "2026-05-06T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-05-07T20:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-05-07T20:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:50.166250+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:26.996000+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 73, "slug": "drake-umg-2dcir-2026", "name": "Drake v UMG \u2014 2d Cir affirms Vargas dismissal", "category": "legal", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the Second Circuit affirm Judge Vargas's October 9 2025 dismissal in Graham v. UMG Recordings, Inc. (defamation suit over Kendrick Lamar's \"Not Like Us\" distribution)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.75, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.7, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.8, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.75, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": "", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-05-22T22:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-22T21:28:25.098461+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:20.998000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-12-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 8, "slug": "drake-iceman-kendrick-mention-2026", "name": "Drake Iceman Kendrick mention (Kalshi fade)", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Drake mention Kendrick Lamar by name on Iceman?", "ehiq_prob": 0.1, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.1, "market_prob": 0.16, "market_source": "kalshi", "market_id": "KXICEMANKL", "market_url": "", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.16, "market_source_at_open": "kalshi", "opened_at": "2026-04-26T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-05-22T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:29.789373+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:49.941365+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:29.789373+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "Iceman contains multiple apparent Kendrick Lamar disses (Janice STFU, Make Them Pay, Make Them Remember). Kendrick mention/diss = YES. EHIQ 10% (Kalshi fade) \u2192 MISS.", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": false, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 69, "slug": "spcx-first-day-pop-over-20pct-2026", "name": "SpaceX (SPCX) \u2014 first-day pop > 20%", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will SPCX close >20% above its IPO price on its first day of trading?", "ehiq_prob": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.45, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "manual", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-05-20T20:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-12T20:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:29.364673+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-21T01:29:29.750903+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:29.364673+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "SPCX closed day 1 at $161.11, +19.3% vs the $135 IPO \u2014 just BELOW the +20% line on a close basis (intraday high was ~$176.5 / +31%). Pop >20% (close) = NO. EHIQ 50% (no directional edge).", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": false, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 116, "slug": "mi-senate-dem-elsayed-2026", "name": "Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Abdul El-Sayed win the August 4, 2026 Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary?", "ehiq_prob": 0.42, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.42, "market_prob": 0.65, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.65, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-07-18T18:30:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-08-04T23:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-08-13T10:44:57.233951+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-18T19:10:48.300678+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-13T10:44:57.233951+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "miss", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": false, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "T2/Claude (Eric directive 2026-08-13, event-rule resolution of overdue calls)", "resolution_source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/abdul-el-sayed-haley-stevens-michigan-primary.html ; https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/abdul-el-sayed-wins-michigans-democratic-senate-primary-notching-midwe-rcna589750", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-08-04" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-08-04T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": true, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 93, "slug": "drake-spotify-100m-monthly-listeners-jun12-2026", "name": "Drake crosses 100M Spotify monthly listeners by Jun 12", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Drake cross 100M Spotify monthly listeners by end-of-day Jun 12, 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-06-08T03:09:05.809231+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-13T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T22:46:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-08T03:09:05.809231+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-29T13:57:08.642030+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "t1-hygiene-2026-08-28", "resolution_source": "fact-check 2026-08-28: @chartdata + InMusicBlog dated 2026-06-12 (some secondary lists lag)", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 51, "slug": "ca-gov-becerra-2026", "name": "Xavier Becerra \u2014 CA Governor primary first-place", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the June 2 2026 California gubernatorial jungle primary?", "ehiq_prob": 0.52, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.47, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.57, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.52, "market_prob": 0.49, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "california-governor-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/california-governor-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.492, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-02T23:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:27.511489+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T20:04:01.287006+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:27.511489+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "Becerra finished 1st in the CA-Gov primary (28.1%), advancing to November with Hilton. First-place = YES. EHIQ 52% \u2192 HIT.", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": 3.0, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 42, "slug": "toronto-mayoral-chow-2026", "name": "Olivia Chow re-election (Toronto Mayor 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.68, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.64, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.72, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.68, "market_prob": 0.895, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-olivia-chow-win-the-2026-toronto-mayoral-election-465", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/toronto-mayoral-election-winner-545", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.77, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": "2026-09-01T18:50:20.176136+00:00", "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-10-26T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T19:33:18.703726+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:12.909000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -21.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "Polymarket settlement of `will-olivia-chow-win-the-2026-toronto-mayoral-election-465`. That market resolves to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of the election scheduled 2026-10-26. Temporary, interim or placeholder mayors appointed before the election do not count. Verified against the venue's published description 2026-09-01.", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2026-10-26" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-10-26T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 33, "slug": "prez-2028-buttigieg", "name": "2028 presidency \u2014 Pete Buttigieg", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.06, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.04, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.09, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.06, "market_prob": 0.0255, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-pete-buttigieg-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.0205, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T17:18:49.429298+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:12.999000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 3.45, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-11-07" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 5, "slug": "mulroney-cpc-leader-2026", "name": "Mark Mulroney as next CPC leader", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Mark Mulroney emerge as the next Conservative Party of Canada leader?", "ehiq_prob": 0.45, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.45, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "manual", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "none", "opened_at": "2026-04-18T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": null, "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:49.730528+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:11.548000+00:00", "status": "withdrawn", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "T2/Claude (Eric directive 2026-07-23)", "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 94, "slug": "drake-spotify-100m-monthly-listeners-jun15-2026", "name": "Drake crosses 100M Spotify monthly listeners by Jun 15", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Drake cross 100M Spotify monthly listeners by end-of-day Jun 15, 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.9, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.9, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-06-08T03:09:05.809231+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-16T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T22:46:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-08T03:09:05.809231+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-29T13:57:08.776005+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "t1-hygiene-2026-08-28", "resolution_source": "fact-check 2026-08-28: @chartdata + InMusicBlog dated 2026-06-12 (some secondary lists lag)", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 234, "slug": "apple-foldable-iphone-announced-2026", "name": "Apple announces a foldable iPhone at the September 9 2026 event", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Does Apple announce a foldable iPhone at its September 9 2026 product event?", "ehiq_prob": 0.8, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.8, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-30T16:34:56.253402+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-30T16:34:56.253402+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-30 from the Sharp digest", "resolves_at": "2026-09-09", "kill_trigger": "Apple, or Gurman/Kuo-level supply-chain reporting, says before the event that the foldable is held. Announcement grades YES; shipping date is irrelevant (iPhone X pattern: announced September, shipped November)." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 233, "slug": "seahawks-sale-closes-2026", "name": "Khosla group closes the Seahawks purchase by Dec 31 2026", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": "sports_ownership_control", "outcome_question": "Does the Khosla group's purchase of the Seattle Seahawks close on or before 2026-12-31?", "ehiq_prob": 0.9, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.9, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-30T15:47:37.740617+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-30T15:47:37.740617+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-30 from the Sharp digest", "resolves_at": "2026-12-31", "kill_trigger": "the league, the club, or the buyer announces a delay or an unmet closing condition. Post-vote sales in this class close within weeks; a silence stretching past Thanksgiving is itself the tell." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 235, "slug": "nba-europe-franchises-awarded-2026", "name": "NBA awards the first NBA Europe franchises by Dec 31 2026", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": "sports_ownership_control", "outcome_question": "Does the NBA announce the awarded franchises (or host cities) for its FIBA-partnered European league on or before 2026-12-31?", "ehiq_prob": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-30T16:34:56.253402+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-30T16:34:56.253402+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-30 from the Sharp digest", "resolves_at": "2026-12-31", "kill_trigger": "The league or FIBA announces the award calendar slipping to 2027, or the EuroLeague integration track collapses the launch timetable." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 237, "slug": "liv-golf-bc-partners-closes-2026", "name": "LIV Golf closes its BC Partners-led investment by Dec 31 2026", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": "sports_ownership_control", "outcome_question": "Does LIV Golf announce the closing of the BC Partners-led investment transaction on or before 2026-12-31?", "ehiq_prob": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.55, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-30T19:50:18.721647+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-30T19:50:18.721647+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-30 from the Sharp digest", "resolves_at": "2026-12-31", "kill_trigger": "BC Partners / Goldthorpe withdraws, or PIF re-ups as lead funder: the BC-Partners-led question is dead at that point and grades NO early." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 236, "slug": "nfl-minority-sale-10b-2026", "name": "An NFL team sells a minority stake at a $10B+ valuation by Dec 31 2026", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": "sports_ownership_control", "outcome_question": "Is a minority-stake sale in an NFL franchise announced at a team valuation of $10B or more on or before 2026-12-31?", "ehiq_prob": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-30T16:34:56.253402+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-30T16:34:56.253402+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-30 from the Sharp digest", "resolves_at": "2026-12-31", "kill_trigger": "No kill beyond the date. An announced deal without disclosed terms does not grade YES until a valuation is reported." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 147, "slug": "seahawks-sale-ratified-2026", "name": "Seahawks sale ratified at the August 26 owners meeting", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": "sports_ownership_control", "outcome_question": "Do NFL owners vote to ratify the Khosla group's purchase of the Seattle Seahawks at or before the August 26 2026 owners meeting?", "ehiq_prob": 0.92, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.92, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-16T16:19:03.551711+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-08-30T20:07:54.785670+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-16T16:19:03.583749+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-30T20:07:54.785670+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "Kimi/Claude, Eric delegation 2026-08-30 (fix-all directive)", "resolution_source": "The NFL's own announcement of the ownership-ratification vote taken at the 2026-08-26 special meeting of owners, or the league's published resolution recording the vote.", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-16 from the Sharp digest", "kill_trigger": "a report before Aug 26 that the finance committee has asked for a revised ownership structure" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 109, "slug": "drake-wc-halftime-2026", "name": "Drake performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show", "category": "culture", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Drake perform at (or be announced as a performer for) the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show (July 19 2026)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.5, "market_prob": 0.08, "market_source": "kalshi", "market_id": "KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-DRA", "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxworldcuphalftime/who-will-perform-at-event/kxworldcuphalftime-26", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.05, "market_source_at_open": "kalshi", "opened_at": "2026-07-13T02:30:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-07-20T00:08:52.983000+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-13T01:24:10.537092+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-29T13:57:09.064408+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "miss", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": false, "edge_pp": 42.0, "resolved_by": "t1-hygiene-2026-08-28", "resolution_source": "fact-check 2026-08-28: USA Today/Wikipedia/Global Citizen \u2014 Madonna/Shakira/BTS/Bieber headlined; no Drake/Future; Kalshi settled NO", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 30, "slug": "prez-2028-vance", "name": "2028 presidency \u2014 JD Vance", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will JD Vance win the 2028 US presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.27, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.22, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.34, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.27, "market_prob": 0.2425, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.1885, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T17:18:49.200280+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:13.060000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 2.75, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25", "resolves_at": "2028-11-07" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 104, "slug": "crypto-2026-eth-touches-1500", "name": "Ethereum touches $1,500 before 2027", "category": "crypto", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Ethereum trade at or below $1,500 at any point before Dec 31, 2026?", "ehiq_prob": 0.88, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.83, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.92, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.88, "market_prob": 0.1265, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-ethereum-dip-to-1500-by-december-31-2026-865-787", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-before-2027", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.8, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-07-02T18:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-07-03T02:02:23.238696+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:13.147000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": 75.35, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "target", "params": { "level": 1500, "expire": "2026-12-31", "trigger": "ETH touches 1500", "direction": "at_or_below" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 15, "slug": "brexit-2016", "name": "Brexit 2016 \u2014 EHIQ register called LEAVE", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Did EHIQ EHIQ register framework call Brexit LEAVE before markets converged?", "ehiq_prob": 0.7, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.7, "market_prob": 0.18, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.18, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2016-04-25T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": null, "resolved_at": "2016-06-23T00:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:50.440256+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:28.188000+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": true, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": true, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 65, "slug": "colombia-presidential-lopez-2026", "name": "Claudia L\u00f3pez win (Colombia 2026)", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Claudia L\u00f3pez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?", "ehiq_prob": 0.02, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.01, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.03, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.02, "market_prob": 0.06, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "colombia-presidential-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.06, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-21T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-19T21:33:04.896881+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:15.029000+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": true, "edge_pp": 0.0, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 156, "slug": "will-the-merger-described-in-global-business-travel-group-in-20261004", "name": "Will the merger described in Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?", "category": "catalyst", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the merger described in Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?", "ehiq_prob": 0.9, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.9, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-08-18T15:22:14.030115+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-18T15:22:14.030115+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-18T20:26:34.954368+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820872/000114036126027649/0001140361-26-027649-index.htm", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "event": "Will the merger described in Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?", "source": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820872/000114036126027649/0001140361-26-027649-index.htm", "resolves_at": "2026-10-04", "kill_trigger": "A termination 8-K, a withdrawn proxy, or a second-request/injunction that pushes the outside date past the resolution date." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": "call", "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 191, "slug": "will-the-merger-described-in-nextera-energy-inc-nee-nee-pn-n-20261007", "name": "Will the merger described in NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE, NEE-PN, NEE-PS, NEE-PT, NEE-PU, NEE-PV, NEE-PW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-09) be completed on or before 2026-10-07?", "category": "catalyst", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the merger described in NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE, NEE-PN, NEE-PS, NEE-PT, NEE-PU, NEE-PV, NEE-PW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-09) be completed on or before 2026-10-07?", "ehiq_prob": 0.864, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.864, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-08-21T00:21:16.253191+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-21T00:21:16.253191+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-21T00:21:16.253191+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/753308/000110465926082301/0001104659-26-082301-index.htm", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "event": "Will the merger described in NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE, NEE-PN, NEE-PS, NEE-PT, NEE-PU, NEE-PV, NEE-PW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-09) be completed on or before 2026-10-07?", "source": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/753308/000110465926082301/0001104659-26-082301-index.htm", "resolves_at": "2026-10-07", "kill_trigger": "A termination 8-K, a withdrawn proxy, or a second-request/injunction that pushes the outside date past the resolution date." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": "call", "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 193, "slug": "will-the-merger-described-in-soundhound-ai-inc-soun-sounw-s-20261006", "name": "Will the merger described in SOUNDHOUND AI, INC. (SOUN, SOUNW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-08) be completed on or before 2026-10-06?", "category": "catalyst", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the merger described in SOUNDHOUND AI, INC. (SOUN, SOUNW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-08) be completed on or before 2026-10-06?", "ehiq_prob": 0.499, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.499, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-08-22T12:21:51.488631+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-22T12:21:51.488631+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-22T12:21:51.488631+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1840856/000121390026076371/0001213900-26-076371-index.htm", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "event": "Will the merger described in SOUNDHOUND AI, INC. (SOUN, SOUNW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-08) be completed on or before 2026-10-06?", "source": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1840856/000121390026076371/0001213900-26-076371-index.htm", "resolves_at": "2026-10-06", "kill_trigger": "A termination 8-K, a withdrawn proxy, or a second-request/injunction that pushes the outside date past the resolution date." } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": "call", "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 149, "slug": "drake-umg-second-circuit-affirm", "name": "Second Circuit affirms the Drake v. UMG dismissal", "category": "legal", "theme_bucket": "music_business", "outcome_question": "Does the Second Circuit affirm the district court's dismissal of Drake's defamation claims against UMG?", "ehiq_prob": 0.8, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.8, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-08-16T16:19:03.551711+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2027-08-16T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-08-16T16:19:03.583749+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-08-22T11:17:47.259198+00:00", "status": "duplicate", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": "The Second Circuit docket in the appeal from Graham v. UMG Recordings: the panel's disposition affirming or otherwise. Readable via CourtListener/RECAP.", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "opened 2026-08-16 from the Sharp digest", "kill_trigger": "a panel draw skewing toward judges who have written expansively on implied factual assertions" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2027-08-16T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 14, "slug": "biden-hur-collapse-2024", "name": "Biden 2024 \u2014 collapse predicted at Hur interview", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Biden withdraw from 2024 race, predicted from Hur interview language?", "ehiq_prob": 0.75, "ehiq_prob_range_low": null, "ehiq_prob_range_high": null, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.75, "market_prob": 0.15, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.15, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2024-02-01T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": null, "resolved_at": "2024-07-21T00:00:00+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:50.375586+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-21T19:10:27.920000+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": "YES", "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": true, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": true, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 84, "slug": "bcred-q2-non-accrual-over-1pct-2026", "name": "BCRED Q2 2026 non-accrual rate exceeds 1.0%", "category": "private_credit", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will BCRED's Q2 2026 reported non-accrual rate exceed 1.0% (vs Q1 0.6% and large-BDC peer average 1.3%)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.65, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.75, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.65, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": null, "opened_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-09-01T18:46:04.847157+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-06-07T01:55:31.905038+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-01T18:46:04.847157+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": null, "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "T2", "resolution_source": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1803498/000180349826000048/bcred-20260630.htm", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "condition": "BCRED Q2 non-accrual >1.0%", "resolves_at": "2026-08-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": "2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00", "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 251, "slug": "ballon-dor-harry-kane-2026", "name": "Harry Kane wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or", "category": "sports", "theme_bucket": "sports_awards", "outcome_question": "Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?", "ehiq_prob": 0.45, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.35, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.45, "market_prob": 0.6235, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2026", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.6325, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00", "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-10-31T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": null, "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-09-02T08:44:59.194572+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-10T12:00:13.205000+00:00", "status": "active", "resolution": null, "actual_outcome": null, "hit": null, "edge_pp": -17.35, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "Venue settlement on the award announcement (ceremony October 26 2026).", "graded_on": "France Football's official announcement of the 2026 Ballon d'Or winner, per the market's rules.", "resolves_at": "2026-10-31" } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": 59, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 254, "slug": "boc-holds-2-25-september-2026", "name": "Bank of Canada holds the overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 2026", "category": "macro", "theme_bucket": "central_banks", "outcome_question": "Does the Bank of Canada hold the target overnight rate at 2.25% at its 2026-09-02 fixed announcement date?", "ehiq_prob": 0.95, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.88, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.98, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.95, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "no_market", "market_id": null, "market_url": null, "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": null, "market_source_at_open": "no_market", "opened_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00", "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-09-02T14:09:33.306206+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-09-02T11:46:27.690030+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-02T14:09:33.306206+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "hit", "actual_outcome": null, "hit": true, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "T1", "resolution_source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-2026-09-2/", "exit_rule": { "type": "event", "params": { "note": "None: resolves on the statement itself, 09:45 ET 2026-09-02.", "graded_on": "The Bank of Canada's published rate statement of 2026-09-02 09:45 ET (bankofcanada.ca).", "resolves_at": "2026-09-02" } }, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": 0, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "absolute", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 52, "slug": "ca-gov-steyer-2026", "name": "Tom Steyer \u2014 CA Governor primary first-place", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Tom Steyer finish first in the June 2 2026 California gubernatorial jungle primary?", "ehiq_prob": 0.35, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.3, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.4, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.35, "market_prob": 0.335, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "california-governor-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/california-governor-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.335, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-02T23:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:28.085258+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T20:04:01.287006+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:28.085258+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "Steyer finished 3rd (22.8%), did not advance. First-place = NO. EHIQ 35% \u2192 HIT.", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": true, "edge_pp": 1.5, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 6, "slug": "drake-iceman-firstweek-2026", "name": "Drake Iceman first-week sales (525K call)", "category": "corporate", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Drake's Iceman first-week US equivalent album units land in the 500K-550K bucket?", "ehiq_prob": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.45, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.55, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.7, "market_prob": 0.5, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "drake-iceman-firstweek", "market_url": "", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.5, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-04T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-05-23T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:29.646721+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-09T15:44:49.803023+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:29.646721+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "Iceman debuted at #1 with 463K equivalent album units (week ending May 21) \u2014 BELOW the 525K bar. >525K = NO. EHIQ 50% (no directional edge).", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": false, "edge_pp": 20.0, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 54, "slug": "ca-gov-porter-2026", "name": "Katie Porter \u2014 CA Governor primary first-place", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Katie Porter finish first in the June 2 2026 California gubernatorial jungle primary?", "ehiq_prob": 0.11, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.08, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.14, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.11, "market_prob": 0.014, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "california-governor-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/california-governor-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.014, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-02T23:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:28.226531+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T20:16:55.661670+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:28.226531+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "Porter finished 5th (4.4%). First-place = NO. EHIQ 11% \u2192 HIT.", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": true, "edge_pp": 9.6, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 55, "slug": "ca-gov-mahan-2026", "name": "Matt Mahan \u2014 CA Governor primary first-place", "category": "election", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will Matt Mahan finish first in the June 2 2026 California gubernatorial jungle primary?", "ehiq_prob": 0.07, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.05, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.1, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.07, "market_prob": 0.022, "market_source": "polymarket", "market_id": "california-governor-election", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/california-governor-election", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.022, "market_source_at_open": "polymarket", "opened_at": "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-06-02T23:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:28.370189+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-10T20:16:55.661670+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-28T04:56:28.370189+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "Mahan finished 6th (3.5%). First-place = NO. EHIQ 7% \u2192 HIT.", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": true, "edge_pp": 4.8, "resolved_by": null, "resolution_source": null, "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": true, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" }, { "id": 67, "slug": "bollore-vivendi-paris-court-2026", "name": "Paris Court of Appeal \u2014 Bollor\u00e9 \"de facto control\" ruling", "category": "legal", "theme_bucket": null, "outcome_question": "Will the Paris Court of Appeal rule on July 8 2026 that Vincent Bollor\u00e9 exercised \"de facto control\" over Vivendi at the Q4 2024 split (triggering AMF enforcement of a mandatory tender offer obligation in the following weeks)?", "ehiq_prob": 0.56, "ehiq_prob_range_low": 0.5, "ehiq_prob_range_high": 0.62, "ehiq_prob_at_open": 0.56, "market_prob": null, "market_source": "unrecorded", "market_id": null, "market_url": "", "market_host": null, "market_event_slug": null, "market_prob_at_open": 0.35, "market_source_at_open": "sell_side_consensus", "opened_at": "2026-05-20T17:00:00+00:00", "criterion_stamped_at": null, "resolves_at_estimate": "2026-07-08T00:00:00+00:00", "resolved_at": "2026-07-23T17:28:35.745960+00:00", "closed_at": null, "created_at": "2026-05-20T17:52:02.746026+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-23T17:36:41.885839+00:00", "status": "resolved", "resolution": "miss", "actual_outcome": "NO", "hit": false, "edge_pp": null, "resolved_by": "T2/Claude (Eric directive 2026-07-23, overdue-SLA clearing)", "resolution_source": "https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/vivendi-takes-note-paris-court-appeals-decision-2026-07-08 (Vivendi PR); Reuters via tradingview.com newsml_L6N43A0JZ; Bloomberg 2026-07-08 bollore-wins-paris-court-ruling; Boursorama/AFP 08/07/2026", "exit_rule": null, "thesis_expiry": null, "horizon_days": null, "is_backtest": false, "digest_excluded": false, "scoreboard_eligible": false, "side_flipped": false, "entry_price": null, "stance": null, "sizing_pct": null, "retrospective": false, "track": "market_referenced", "updated_at_caveat": "UNRELIABLE: do not sort, filter, or derive freshness from this field" } ], "row_sha256": "7c8ba872adc35ef4c2d5d6eee88be813fbe7818d11e49e992cb6d02a4ae7dede" }