EventHorizonIQ

EHIQ Track Record

The receipts.

Dated predictions, public outcomes. Every call posted before resolution; nothing retroactive. Probabilities locked at call time; markets cited from Kalshi or Polymarket where available.

Hit rate
83%
5 of 6 resolved
Tracked
58
real-time calls (backtests excluded)
Open
52
live calls awaiting resolution

Anchor receipts

Musk v Altman verdict

Called May 9, 2026 · Resolved May 18, 2026

HIT
EHIQ
30%
vs
kalshi
40%
-10 pp vs 40%

Jury unanimously rejected Musk's suit in full on statute-of-limitations grounds (2026-05-18), including the aiding-and-abetting claim against Microsoft (a named co-defendant). EHIQ posted 30% Musk-win on 2026-05-09 before the verdict, vs Kalshi ~40% — correct on the outcome, probabilistically; not a forecast of the SOL mechanism.

OPEN Q1 FY26 — Reffkin pattern Type A

Called May 6, 2026 · Resolved May 7, 2026

HIT
EHIQ
70%

Reffkin-pattern Type A delivered in full. Confirmed pre-print thesis.

PSEC Q3 FY26 — Pebbles II confirmation

Called Apr 15, 2026 · Resolved May 8, 2026

HIT
EHIQ
75%

Distribution coverage breakdown + ZERO Q&A confirmed. First Pebble thesis validated. Watch FSK/BIZD/OWL/ARES/GBDC for next confirmations.

Bulgaria — Radev presidential call

Called Apr 19, 2026 · Resolved Apr 19, 2026

HIT
EHIQ
85%
vs
polymarket
95%
-9 pp vs 95%

Radev won the Bulgarian presidential vote. EHIQ called it before Polymarket priced it.

All resolved real-time calls

HITNXDR Q1 FY26 — beat consensus75%May 6, 2026CALIBRATIONDAVE Q1 FY26 — direction right, magnitude calibration75%May 5, 2026

Currently open (37)

Live calls awaiting resolution. Premium subscribers see the full thesis behind each.

OPEN2028 D primary — Buttigieg outperforms NewsomEHIQ 38%resolves Aug 31, 2028OPEN2028 R primary — Tucker beats Vance head-to-head (if both run)EHIQ 35%resolves Aug 31, 2028OPEN2028 presidency — JD VanceEHIQ 27%resolves Nov 7, 2028OPEN2028 presidency — Gavin NewsomEHIQ 15%resolves Nov 7, 2028OPENUS Senate control 2026EHIQ 47%resolves Nov 4, 2026OPENUS House control 2026EHIQ 65%resolves Nov 4, 2026OPENDrake Iceman Kendrick mention (Kalshi fade)EHIQ 10%resolves May 22, 2026OPENDrake Iceman first-week sales (525K call)EHIQ 50%resolves May 23, 2026OPENSteve Hilton — CA Governor primary first-placeEHIQ 25%resolves Jun 2, 2026OPENXavier Becerra — CA Governor primary first-placeEHIQ 52%resolves Jun 2, 2026OPENMatt Mahan — CA Governor primary first-placeEHIQ 7%resolves Jun 2, 2026OPENKatie Porter — CA Governor primary first-placeEHIQ 11%resolves Jun 2, 2026OPENTom Steyer — CA Governor primary first-placeEHIQ 35%resolves Jun 2, 2026OPENChong Won-oh win (Seoul Mayoral 2026)EHIQ 85%resolves Jun 3, 2026OPENOh Se-hoon retention (Seoul Mayoral 2026)EHIQ 15%resolves Jun 3, 2026OPENv18 BTC regime shifted to risk-on (gate ON, score 0.619)EHIQ 62%resolves Jun 10, 2026OPENSpaceX (SPCX) — first-day pop > 20%EHIQ 50%resolves Jun 12, 2026OPENSpaceX (SPCX) — first-day close market cap > $2 trillionEHIQ 55%resolves Jun 12, 2026OPENPaloma Valencia win (Colombia 2026)EHIQ 10%resolves Jun 21, 2026OPENClaudia López win (Colombia 2026)EHIQ 2%resolves Jun 21, 2026OPENAbelardo de la Espriella win (Colombia 2026)EHIQ 28%resolves Jun 21, 2026OPENIván Cepeda Castro win (Colombia 2026)EHIQ 20%resolves Jun 21, 2026OPENTrump v Slaughter — Humphrey's Executor overturnedEHIQ 75%resolves Jun 30, 2026OPENParis Court of Appeal — Bolloré "de facto control" rulingEHIQ 56%resolves Jul 8, 2026OPENFlávio Bolsonaro win (Brazil 2026)EHIQ 33%resolves Oct 25, 2026OPENLula da Silva re-election (Brazil 2026)EHIQ 38%resolves Oct 25, 2026OPENBrad Bradford win (Toronto Mayor 2026)EHIQ 22%resolves Oct 26, 2026OPENOlivia Chow re-election (Toronto Mayor 2026)EHIQ 68%resolves Oct 26, 2026OPENGA Senate — Ossoff retentionEHIQ 62%resolves Nov 4, 2026OPENSpaceX (SPCX) — 180-day lock-up close below IPO priceEHIQ 35%resolves Dec 9, 2026OPENSpaceX (SPCX) — 6-month total return outperforms QQQ by >10ppEHIQ 40%resolves Dec 14, 2026OPENDrake v UMG — 2d Cir affirms Vargas dismissalEHIQ 75%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENCLARITY Act signed into law by Dec 31 2026EHIQ 62%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENDrake top Spotify artist 2026EHIQ 20%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENGameStop acquires eBay (Cohen $125 bid)EHIQ 8%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENDrake next deal — $1.07B all-rights forecastEHIQ 62%resolves Nov 20, 2027OPENMark Mulroney as next CPC leaderEHIQ 45%resolves —

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Calls posted before resolution to the EHIQ predictions ledger. Backtests excluded from headline hit-rate. Methodology and full call history at /predictions.